Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 2 – Vladimir Putin
not only has further isolated his country from the world by vetoing the UN
Security Council resolution calling for a tribunal on the downing of the
Malaysian jetliner, Konstantin Borovoy says, he also now faces a situation in
which his ability to blackmail Ukraine and the West is increasingly limited by
the failures of his forces there.
In the course of an interview with
Apostrophe.com, the Russian opposition figure notes that “every time” Moscow
needed talks as in Minsk-1 and Minsk-2, Moscow “actively used the instruments
of blackmail: it stepped up its aggression, conducted offensive operations,
used heavy weapons, and carried out all kinds of provocations, political and
military” (apostrophe.com.ua/article/society/2015-08-01/kreml-obespokoen-voynoy-v-ukraine-opasaetsya-sereznogo-otveta-i-porajeniya/2042).
In
the current situation when Putin clearly sees the need for new agreements as
cover for his actions, he will likely use the same tactic. But Borovoy says,
“we are approaching a moment when the aggressive measures of Russia may be
followed by a very serious military response … [and] the Kremlin is very
concerned about this situation.”
“Ukraine’s
army is strengthening, materiel is beginning to arrive and at a certain moment
the next [Russian] provocation could end with a serious military defeat” for
the Russian side, he argues. That is because “Russia’s aggressive actions
already for a long time have not been as successful as those in the Kremlin
would like.”
At
the same time, however, Borovoy adds, no one in the West wants the conflict to
escalate. Instead, all are more or less satisfied with a “frozen” conflict:
people continue to die “but not in such numbers as would if there were
large-scale military operations.
But the question
remains, he says. Can one negotiate with an aggressor who, one knows in
advance, will violate anything he says or signs? “Would it have been worthwhile to conduct
negotiations with fascist Germany, for example?” Or is it the case, he asks
rhetorically, that the only way to stop such a regime is with “armed
resistance?”
According to Borovoy, in this increasingly
dangerous situation, the only way “in the final analysis” to solve the
situation is via military means. “And the faster everyone recognizes this, the
more rapidly the Kremlin will make concessions.”
Regime change in Russia is not going
to happen as a result of domestic processes there either at the elite or mass
level, the opposition figure says. Instead, it will require “the occupation of
part of the territory of Russia,” and ultimately the holding of a
Nuremberg-type tribunal “not somewhere in Europe or Ukraine but in Moscow.”
“Already now,” Borovoy says, “countries
are beginning to recognize the danger of what Russia is doing and they are
trying to solve the problem by non-military means. Everyone understands that
actions are necessary, but no one wants two participate in a military conflict.
The only possibility then is sanctions and an embargo.”
What has happened in Ukraine, he
continues, “has demonstrated that the US and the UK are not ready by military
means to defend their obligations in particular to Ukraine. They are simply not
prepared to sacrifice the lives of their citizens and fulfill their
obligations.” And that has some
dangerous consequences.
It has “generated a certain
uncertainty among the members of NATO. In this situation, NATO and the US have
been forced to show their members that they are prepared to defend their common
borders and fulfill their obligations to the members of the alliance,” perhaps
even more than otherwise because of what the West has not yet done in Ukraine.
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