Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 2 – If one considers
the factors that powered the rise of ISIS in Iraq and Syria – political instability,
a weak counter-terrorism policy, Sunni predominance, and enormous natural
resources -- Dzhamiliya Kochoyan says, one is driven to the conclusion that
Turkmenistan is at greater risk of an ISIS attack than any other country in
Central Asia.
The Regnum analyst points out that “to
find information about any political aspect of Turkmenistan is quite difficult”
because it is “a closed republic, the foreign political strategy of which is
based on the principles of positive neutrality” but several recent developments
have exposed its vulnerabilities (regnum.ru/news/polit/1947695.html).
These developments have highlighted
three risk factors: First, as in Iraq, she writes, “terrorists in Turkmenistan
can unleash clashes along the Afghan-Turkmen border,” a place that from a
security point of view is “the ‘Achilles’ heel’ of Turkmenistan” and one that
makes that country an especially tempting target for militants connected with
ISIS.
Problems along the border are made
worse by the weakness of the Turkmenistan military. Not only has it been unable
to conduct an effective draft, but it has seen the size of its forces fall from
200,000 to 50,000. Moreover, Kochoyan writes, Ashgabat has not developed a
serious anti-terrorist program or thought how to defend the country given “the
absence of natural barriers.”
Second, ISIS strategy in the past
has focused on the seizure of energy resources so as to be able to sell them in
order to finance ISIS military and terrorist activities. At present, Kochoyan says, Turkmenistan has
the fourth largest natural gas reserves in the world -- and most of them are
undeveloped.
And third, ISIS is most effective
when it is operating in a Sunni Muslim area.
“The overwhelming majority of Muslims” in Turkmenistan are Sunni; and
the ethnic Turkmens in Mary velayat are primarily Sunni as well. That makes the
Mary district a doubly attractive target for ISIS: it has human resources and
it has natural gas.
Kochoyan’s argument is cogent, but
there are two caveats to that conclusion. On the one hand, as she points out,
outsiders know less about Turkmenistan than they do about any other country in
the region. Consequently, much that is written about it is speculative rather
than based on hard evidence.
And on the other, Russian
commentators and especially those linked to agencies like Regnum have an
agenda: they want to force Ashgabat to give up its neutrality and join the
Moscow-led camp. Suggesting that Turkmenistan can’t defend itself against ISIS
and that no one but Russia will is a powerful argument from that perspective.
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