Paul
Goble
Staunton, June 25 – Many in both
Moscow and the West believe, happily or unhappily, that Britain’s vote to leave
the EU will spark similar referenda in other member states and result in the EU’s
demise. Some in both, again happily or unhappily, believe it will lead to an
end of sanctions on Russia, given that their chief advocate won’t be in the EU
any longer.
But a close Putin ally, Boris Titov
who is Vladimir Putin’s ombudsman for businesses and entrepreneurs has pointed
to an even more serious consequence of the vote, one he and his boss clearly
welcome but many in the West should fear: the severing of the European-American
link that is most clearly institutionalized in NATO.
On his Facebook page immediately
after the British vote, Titov wrote the following: “It seems that it has
happened – the UK is out!!! In my view, the most important long-term
consequence of all this is this: the exit will tear Europe away from the
Anglo-Saxons, that is, from the United States” (facebook.com/boris.titov.92?fref=ts).
And that in turn means, he says in
words that reflect his most obvious hope and the fears of many in the Western
alliance that this UK decision “is not the independence of Britain from Europe
but the independence of Europe from the US.
And from this to a united Eurasia is not very far only about ten years.”
Destroying NATO has been a Moscow
goal since Soviet times because Soviet and now Russian leaders recognize that
it is the chief integument between Europe and the United States. Without that
link and without that organization, individual European countries will have to
deal with an increasingly assertive Russia on their own, exactly what Moscow
wants.
But the danger to NATO is even more
immediate than that, as the Kremlin clearly intends. An alliance in which no
one has any confidence is like a religion no one any longer believes, and the
Brexit vote will lead ever more NATO members to have doubts about the alliance’s
longterm integrity and viability, doubts that have existed since Prishtina.
As diplomats and political analysts
have pointed out in many contexts, the most difficult step is often the first
one; and once it is made, others will follow.
So far, most commentators have been talking about the future of the EU.
They should be focusing on the future of NATO as well because the spirit of
isolationism is abroad, and it will spread from the economy to security.
If that happens – and no one should
ever forget that this is Moscow’s most cherished goal – the countries of Europe
will lose the security that the alliance has guaranteed for more than half a
century and have to confront a resurgent Russia on their own without any
confidence that the West will help them.
The new members in the eastern part of the
continent will feel this threat first, but those older ones in the western part
and also those in North America will not escape this danger if the forces that
gave Brexit forces a victory are not addressed and countered. Despite what many
think, it is not just “the economy stupid.” It is something much more than
that.
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