invincible USSR,” the Kremlin reasons, and therefore they will be even more effective against “the rotting democracies of the West and all sorts of small pseudo-states.”
Not surprising where there is a demand based on such a vision, Krasheninnikov continues, there will be a supply; and various analytic centers have rushed to provide the Kremlin with ideas on how to disorder the West, destroy NATO, and ensure “’a belt of neutral states in the Balkans.’”
But this approach hasn’t worked: “however much [Moscow] invests in marginal fighters with the system [in these countries], they all the same lost to the systemic forces there in ways that are completely predictable,” he argues.
Even in the case of the US elections, which “seemed to many to be the beginning of a new era,” Moscow’s conspiracy-driven approach has failed: The US did not collapse or disintegrate, and “American democracy has shown itself to have a significant level of stability. One man, even if he is the US president, isn’t capable of turning everything upside down.”
And in the cases of “small countries like Montenegro and Macedonia,” Moscow’s conspiracy-driven approach has “turned out to be ineffective,” even when reinforced by “mystical” faith in “Slavic unity and Orthodox brotherhood.”
In this case, Krasheninnikov says, “the contemporary world has turned out to be much more complicated that Dugin and Prokhanov see it.” First, Balkan elites think “pragmatically” and recognize that the rich EU nearby is “a much more interesting partner than distant and comparatively poor Russia.”
Second, it was “extremely native to plan something” of the kind Moscow did without recognizing that the EU and NATO could and would respond. And third, those who implemented the Kremlin’s decision showed themselves to be pathetic. The result: Montenegro joined NATO, and Macedonia seeks closer ties with the Western alliance and with the EU.
Despite this, Krasheninnikov says, “there is no basis to suppose that this destructive and expensive fiath that one can achieve anything anywhere with money and propaganda is about to be thrown aside in the near future by the ruling elite of our country.” Instead, driven by its own propaganda, Moscow will waste “billions of dollars” and have little to show for it.
One thing, however, is “already clear,” he concludes. “Seeking domination or even suggest in world politics by operating on archaic theories and open mysticism in the 21st century” is doomed to failure after failure.