Paul
Goble
Staunton, March 1 – Nursultan Nazarbayev’s
order that Kazakh is to be written in Latin script rather than a Cyrillic one
and even more his directive that the government and parliament are to use
Kazakh rather than Russian recalls the moment Ukraine took similar decisions in
the past – but with one significant difference so far, Vitaly Portnikov says.
“When similar decisions were taken
in Kyiv, official Moscow exploded with anger and began to speak about growing
nationalism, and pro-Russian politicians began to talk about the diminution of
rights of Russian speakers,” the Ukrainian commentator observes. But nothing similar has happened in the
Kazakhstan case (graniru.org/opinion/portnikov/m.267993.html).
The Kremlin is keeping quiet, “and
there are simply no pro-Russian politicians in Kazakhstan.” Nazarbayev was one for
a time, but clearly he isn’t anymore else how would he have “taken decisions
which in the future will lead not just to a governmental break between Russia
and Kazakhstan but a more profound civilizational one as well?”
Nazarbayev has remained in power as long as he has
because he has always been sensitive to what is going on around him and acted
accordingly. His Kazakhstan was the last republic to declare independence “not
because Nazarbayev didn’t want this but because he had to demonstrate to the numerous
Russian population of his republic his attachment to the Union.”
Afterwards,
he was “the initiator of the establishment of the Eurasian Union when his
colleagues didn’t want to hear about any integration” and openly disparaged his
ideas. That and his governing style reassured the ethnic Russians and other
Russian speakers in Kazakhstan that everything would continue as it has.
And
then “suddenly this turn of events.” But
in fact, Portnikov argues, it was not “sudden” at all. Nazarbayev simply has
drawn conclusions from the Russian attack on Ukraine. He “could not fail to
notice that where there were many Russians and Russians speakers,” Moscow had a
relatively easy time in its aggression. When there weren’t, it didn’t.
That
is why, the Ukrainian analyst says, Nazarbayev has decided to elevate the status
of the Kazakh language and to “transform Kazakhstan residents from Soviet
people into a Kazakh political nation.”
Had Russia shown itself to be a good neighbor, this would never have
happened or at least not yet.
“But
Putin’s Russia has ceased t be post-Soviet: it has transformed itself into an
aggressive and unpredictable formation ready for expansion and wars,” Portnikov
continues. And in response, “Nazarbayev’s
Kazakshtan has ceased to be post-Soviet too – it is becoming Kazakh.”
It
could hardly be otherwise given that “when Putin attacked Ukraine, he lost not
only Ukraine: he lost Kazakhstan as well; and not only Kazakhstan.”
Portnikov
is absolutely right that official Moscow has not responded with anger to
Kazakhstan’s moves on the alphabet and language, although part of the reason
for that may be the election campaign in which the Kremlin leader wants there
to be only good news and no indications of trouble ahead.
But
within the Moscow commentariat, there are echoes of the more aggressive
approach Putin adopted about Ukraine. Some have complained that Nazarbayev has “banned”
Russian altogether (topcor.ru/299-pochemu-nazarbaev-otreksya-ot-russkogo.html),
while others say that his country faces dismemberment (newsland.com/community/7268/content/mysli-vslukh-nazarbaev-reshil-sozdat-vse-usloviia-dlia-budushchego-raschleneniia-kazakhstana/6232419).
One can only hope that cooler heads
prevail in the Kremlin and that Putin does not try to repeat his Ukrainian
operation in Kazakhstan or elsewhere. Such efforts would be disastrous because
as Nazarbayev’s actions show, ever more non-Russian leaders have taken Putin’s
measurement and also take steps to prevent him from achieving his goals.
No comments:
Post a Comment