Unrest in Kazakhstan more a Cri de Coeur than an Organized Political Protest, Analysts Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 29 – Activism in the from of street protests against specific events like the arms dump explosion in Arys or against specific regional officials continues, but it is more a cri de coeur from a population that got used to activism during the election than a political protest organized by the still weak opposition, Serik Beysembayov says.

            The Kazakh political analyst says that growing horizontal ties among urban Kazakhs will make demands for greater political participation and elite responsiveness increase but that it will be five to seven years before the new social activism transforms itself into any serious political opposition (camonitor.kz/33284-kakova-sudba-protestnogo-dvizheniya-v-kazahstane-i-chem-otvetit-vlast.html).

            That makes the situation, he and other analysts suggest, both less a threat to the political leadership than one organized by opposition groups because it cannot be directed in a systematic way and more dangerous to stability because such popular anger can break out at any time and place without leadership to mediate between it and the regime.

For Kazakhstan, this is a new situation, one in which the regime does not fully control the situation but where it has some freedom of action to try to address the concerns of the population without such concessions representing a direct threat to the powers of the regime itself (stanradar.com/news/full/35163-protesty-v-kazahstane-vyhodjat-iz-pod-kontrolja-vlastej.html).

            And that is going to be the nature of the transition from Nursultan Nazarbayev to a new generation of leaders for some time to come, one in which there will be enough protests to lead some to conclude that the situation is spinning “out of control” but not enough to make that a genuine reality anytime soon.