Paul
Goble
Staunton, May 28 – Vladimir Putin
veer the last year has sought to achieve his goals in Ukraine – the division of
that country along the Dnipr River – by diplomatic and economic means, Lt.Gen.
Igor Romanenko says. As a result, the Kremlin leader has only military options
if he is to achieve that end this year.
The former chief of the Ukrainian general
staff suggests that Kyiv can be quite proud of its diplomatic successes and its
moves to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies and transit, but it
must recognize that Putin has not given up plans to defeat and partition
Ukraine (censoru.net/2020/05/28/putin-hotel-razdelit-ukrainu-po-dnepru-k-2020-godu-general.html).
That means that the Ukrainian government
and its supporters must understand as well that Putin has only a military option
unless he is to admit defeat and suffer the consequences at home and abroad and
that Kyiv must prepare itself to resist militarily by taking all possible steps
to be ready when Moscow acts.
The Russian military is fully
capable of advancing to the Dnipr if the Kremlin gives the order. And in that
event, Russia will then move to restart its Novorossiya project and leave
Ukraine a rump state that will have no choice but to accept Russian diktat on
all issues, Romanenko says.
On the one hand, this is a military man
speaking, a general with long experience of suggesting a worst-case scenario to
extract more funds from his government. But on the other, he is highlighting something
many forget: diplomatic successes against Putin, as welcome as they are, may
lead him to throw the dice militarily.
And that is a danger Ukraine and the West
need to prepare themselves for.
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