Paul
Goble
Staunton, July 18 – The continuing
strength of Vladimir Putin’s political system lies in its lack of an ideology
and thus its ability to change how it presents itself in a “chameleon-like”
manner depending on audiences and circumstances, Andrey Serenko says. Those in and
around the Kremlin who want a more fixed ideology are the true gravediggers of
the system.
The director of the Moscow Analytic Center
of the Russian Society of Political Analysts says in the absence of a specific
ideology, the Kremlin can in case of need present itself as “liberal” or “Stalinist”
without committing itself to either for the long term, and that flexibility
allows it to parry almost any challenge (realtribune.ru/news/authority/4676).
According to Serenko, “the Russian
political system is absolutely technological: it is a chameleon system capable
of changing color in order to guarantee its survival in any social context.” If it were to lose that capacity and flexibility,
it would be at risk because all its opponents would have a fixed rather than
moving target to direct their anger at.
The analyst says that despite the
efforts of some in the Kremlin to push for a single ideology, there are enough
people there who understand that they won’t want to cut off the limb on which
they sit because at some point they will face a more serious challenge not from
the streets but from within the elite – and the lack of a specific ideology
protects the rulers there too.
Street protests while dramatic “are
not dangerous for the system of the Russian Federation, Serenko continues. And
competition of elites isn’t either. They can help keep the Russian system up to
snuff and allow it to adapt, to change color if you will, so that the powers
that be can remain in place.
Ultimately, it was a fixed ideology
that led to the collapse of the USSR, he argues; and as long as the current
Russian system avoids that trap, it has a good chance to outlast its Soviet
predecessor. But the temptation to establish
a fixed ideology is great and perhaps especially so among Putin’s closest
aides.
As a result, Serenko says, “the region
with the greatest protest threat is the Kremlin itself,” and if Putin follows
their advice, he will be as it sometimes appears he already is “the most protest-oriented
politician in the country.” But despite
the temptations, he will likely pull back, recognizing that “a protest in which
the elites do not take part has no prospects.”
According to the political analyst,
the most likely place where elites could get involved with mass protests and
thus challenge the regime in Moscow are “those regions of the Russian
Federation” where elites think they can use the population to boost their own
positions regarding control of resources.
But for the time being, and indeed
unless the center adopts a single hard and fast ideology, Serenko concludes, he
doesn’t “see in the Russian Federation any such regions.”
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