Chaos Theory Now Operational Basis of Putin’s Foreign Policy, Barbashin Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 25 – Most analyses of Putin’s foreign policy suggest that it is driven by the desire to create a multi-polar world in which Russia will occupy a special place, but in fact, Anton Barbashin says, the real operational basis of his actions is the chaos theory that experts in the Valdai Club have been pushing for more than a decade.

            These experts argue that the world has entered a new period of chaos, “the natural and inevitable phase which follows the collapse of established ‘centers of gravity’ before a new and stable system of alliances, institutions and norms has emerged, the analyst who works as editor of The Riddle portal says (ridl.io/ru/svideteli-haosa/).

            As presented by the Valdai Club, this theory has five key postulates: First, “the old world cannot be restored” and those who try to do so are doomed to futility. Second, chaos by its very nature is “fundamentally unmanageable,” allowing those who act most rapidly and with the fewest constraints can make the most progress.

            Third, in this new world, “every actor is ultimately on his own,” forced to rely on himself alone and necessarily prepared to make rapid changes in the partners selected. Fourth, “morality and ethics no longer have a place in politics” either at home or abroad. And fifth, war is the natural condition of this phase and therefore “military power is the guarantee of survival.”

            The chaos theory, Barbashin concludes, “performs a triple function: it records the already accomplished changes in the rule of Russian foreign policy, it supplies them with an intellectual explanation, and it creates a broad context within which further unprincipled foreign policy steps appear logical and justified.”