‘Now There are Six’ – Azerbaijan Joins Central Asian States, Transforming Geopolitics of Eurasia

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 21 – Following the decision earlier this month by the five leaders of the Central Asian countries to include Azerbaijan in their grouping in the future, Hikmet Hajiyev, an advisor to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev declared that “from now on, Central Asia includes six countries” and not five as in the past (x.com/HikmetHajiyev/status/1989973093759307986).

            Because these meetings of presidents of one region often are little more than talk shops, the significance of this change both for the region and for its role in the larger world have not yet been fully appreciated, but it appears likely that this change will play a larger role in both than almost any other international development in recent months.

            There are at least three compelling reasons for that conclusion:

·       First, the inclusion of Azerbaijan in Central Asia in this way makes that the region more influential because of the size of Azerbaijan.

·       Second, it makes Central Asia more Turkic both by adding a fifth Turkic state and by expanding the bridge between Central Asia and Turkey.

·       And third, it reenforces the Turkic and Islamic nature of Azerbaijan, developments that will have an impact on Baku’s role not only in the Caucasus and the new Central Asia but more generally.

Other fallout from this development is likely, including the possibility that Central Asia will expand again, including within its orbit not just Azerbaijan but Afghanistan and Pakistan. The inclusion of Azerbaijan will make that an easier sell in the other capitals, and such an outcome will be even more fateful to Eurasian geopolitics.