Kazakhstan President Offers New Model for Dealing with Moscow, ‘Partnership without Political Alignment,’ Toyekin Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 29 – During his July 25 meeting with Vladimir Putin, Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev offered a new model for non-Russian leaders dealing with Moscow: committing his country to “partnership” with Russia but not promising “political alignment” on all questions, Almat Toyekin says.

            The Kazakhstan analyst focuses on the way in which Tokayev acted; but perhaps indicative of his real goals in writing this piece, he placed it in the Caspian Post, an outlet devoted to South Caucasus affairs where Azerbaijan President Ilham Alyev has moved in a similar question (caspianpost.com/opinion/kazakhstan-s-message-to-moscow-partnership-without-political-alignment).

            What both Tokayev and Aliyev now offer is a new model of how the governments of the countries that gained independence in 1991 when the USSR disintegrated, one that represents a kind of halfway house between continuing subservience to Moscow that the Kremlin wants and the complete break with Moscow that many see as the only or at least ultimate pattern.

            Obviously, the Russian government will seek to limit movement in these directions; but by offering commitment to partnership without agreeing to support Moscow on all questions, many of these countries may find a way to navigate through what is a political minefield and prevent the Kremlin from taking more radical actions.

            Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are perhaps best equipped to strike out in this direction. They have large oil reserves, occupy portions of the geopolitical map especially important to both Russia and outside powers, and have been building up both their diplomatic and military strength.

            But they are not alone, and many of the others in the region may see what Tokayev and Aliyev are doing as an attractive next stage in their national life, one that may allow them to expand their independence from Moscow in a safer way than a clearer break with the past might allow.

            At the very least, this possibility deserves both attention and understanding, as the demise of the Russocentric empire continues.