Immigration Only Temporary Solution to Russia’s Population Decline and One that Won’t Last, Sinelnikov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 2 – Immigration, which the Kremlin views as a major part of the solution to Russia’s demographic decline, can only be a temporary palliative given that now the overwhelming majority of countries now have fertility rates below replacement levels and soon won’t have anyone to export to Russia, Aleksandr Sinelnikov says.

            Last year, the sociology professor at Moscow State University points out, “the global birthrate dropped for the first time ever below the level needed for simple reproduction.” That has been true of Russia for some time, but it means that Russia soon won’t be able to count on massive immigration (readovka.news/news/248151/).

            Some people will continue to migrate for economic reasons going from poorer countries to wealthier ones, of course, Sinelnikov acknowledges; but as fertility rates fall further below the 2.2 children per woman per lifetime needed to maintain current population rates, the number choosing to do so will ultimately decline.

            That means that Russia cannot count on immigration to reverse its current and rapid population decline and instead will have to rely on its own efforts, efforts that will be expensive and take a very long time to show the kind of results that Moscow would like, the sociologist concludes.