Paul Goble
Staunton, Sept. 19 – Western analysts constantly propose possible successors to Vladimir Putin and even seek to handicap them in much the same way they do possible future leaders in other countries, the Important Theme portal says; but in adopting that approach, they almost invariably miss “the main thing.”
These analysts and commentators “do not see that the Russian government is no the sum of positions but a living system that during transit finds as its leader not someone who will be appointed but rather someone who can be the expression of the objective interests of the state in its current historical cycle” (temaglavnoe.ru/russia/32272/).
By employing for Russia the optic they use in analyzing political transition in other countries, the portal’s authors continue, they “lose sight of the deep tectonic processes that determine the real architecture of the Russian state, the political culture of the state, its historical experience and the mentality of its people.”
The portal’s authors list eight failngs of Western analyses of the upcoming transition in Russia in this regard:
· First, these analysts “do not see the role of informal networks and personal relationships” that are so critical in Russia … invisible threads of personal obligation, long-standing friendships, joint experiences of study or service and unspoken arrangements, all of which are often more important” than any superficial set of views and responsibilities.
· Second, these analysts “ignore historical memory and cultural codes … The figure of the successor there should not just be ‘fit into parameters;,’ it must resonate with the deep expectations of the elites and society.”
· Third, Western analysts “do not take into account the factor of randomness and unpredictability,” critical because “the transfer of power iw not a planned operation but often a chaotic process in which unforeseen circumstances play a decisive role” and mistakes in the course of this can transfer a frontrunner to an also ran very quickly.
· Fourth, such analysts typically “overlook the role of ideology and values” and thus they don’t recognize that “a technocrat without an ideological agenda won’t be able to consolidate elites at this time of crisis.”
· Fifth, these analysts “ignore the regional factor and the diversity of Russia.” Russia is far more than Moscow however little attention Western analysts give to Russai outside of Moscow. More generally, they ignore society, a mistake because “even in an authoritarian system, popular legitimacy is important.”
· Sixth, most Western analysts treat the security services as a monolithic whole and do not understand the tensions among its component parts. Those aren’t always visible in public but they are always present and in a succession crisis, each will want the best for itself.
· Seventh, most of these analysts make the same mistake about the business community. It too is fragmented rather than being a unified whole and won’t act the way these analysts appear to think.
· And eighth, these analysts generally accept “the myth” of the Russian “princes,” forgetting that “in Russia the status of ‘prince’ exists only as long as their fathers are a resource and that “power isn’t inherited.
And lying behind all of these errors is another fundamental one: “In personalist regimes, the transit of power is not so much a struggle for this or that position but a search for a figure capable of maintain and intra-elite balance.” Without that, there will be turbulence, something almost all of those involved want to avoid.
When the looming transition occurs, the portal says, “at the top of the power will be not the one who simply ‘agree’ with the clans and not the richest ‘businessman.’ Instead, the system will put forward someone who can ensure a tight balance of interests by becoming a figure acceptable to competing corporations -- and also able to impose his will on that balance.”
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