Neither Rising Age of First-Time Mothers Nor War in Ukraine has Any Significant Impact on Russia’s Birthrate, Independent Demographer Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 2 – Neither the rising age of first-time mothers nor the war in Ukraine has had any significant impact on the birthrate in the Russian Federation, Aleksey Raksha says, despite Putin’s insistence that the first is critical and his opponent’s equally firm belief that the second is playing a major role.  

            According to the former Rosstat expert who now is an independent demographer, changes that can be attributed to either of these fall “within the margin of error” and thus are not behind the decline in Russian fertility (thereplica.io/post/demograf-aleksei-raksha-o-zayavleniyakh-vladimira-putina-o-prichinakh-nizkoi-rozhdaemosti-v-rossii).

            And despite the alarm expressed by Putin and other Russian politicians and commentators, Raksha says, “Russia’s current fertility rate is not exceptionally low compared to European countries.” Instead, it is “a perfectly average European level,” although Russia births still occur at a younger age than European ones do.

The demographer says that the age when women have their first child in Russia is 26.5, not the 29 years Putin has claimed; and the Russian figure while rising remains “one of the youngest” in Europe.  “Only Ukraine and Moldova now have lower ages” for when a woman first gives birth.

According to Raksha, the figure of 29 years cited by Putin is incorrect. "The calculation provided to him was wrong. It isn't 29 years; it's approximately 26.5." "This is one of the youngest ages for having a first child in all of Europe. Only Ukraine and Moldova have lower ages," he says.

While Russia is “roughly at or slightly above” this age metric among comparable countries for the first child, “it is noticeably below the average for the second. For the third, Russia ranks among the leaders … and for the fourth, Russia holds the top spot among this group of countries, including the US.”

Encouraging women to have a second child is both the most important and most difficult task Moscow faces in order to boost birthrates. After the first child is born, parents can see the impact on their lives and thus often are unwilling to have a second, Raksha’s analysis suggests.