Paul
Goble
Staunton, May 4—Russian attitudes about
North Caucasians and the situation in the North Caucasus have stabilized or
even improved over the last three year, even though there are potentially serious
problems ahead; but their feelings toward Muslims in general have become
increasingly negative, according to Yana Amelina.
The coordinator of the Caucasus
Geopolitical Club says that new Levada Center polls show that Russian attitudes
about the situation in the North Caucasus have stabilized or even improved
since the run-up to the 2014 Sochi Olympics (kavkazgeoclub.ru/content/kavkaz-v-zerkale-pozitiva).
According to the Russian
commentator, such attitudes are in the main justified: the security situation in
the region has improved, but one of the major reasons it has in fact is a
matter of concern for the future, especially given the increasing hostility of
Russians to Muslims as such.
A major reason for the improvement
of the situation, she suggests, is that the Russian security services
established tight control over the southern Russian border and permitted or
even encouraged Islamist radicals to leave the region to fight for their cause
in the Middle East. But now the
situation has changed from Moscow’s perspective and that may have consequences.
The Russian authorities are
certainly not going to allow the return of Islamist militants from Syria and
Iraq lest they reignite problems in the North Caucasus. But they are also
unlikely to be willing to allow Islamist militants who want to leave the North
Caucasus to go to the Middle East where Russia is now a participant in the
anti-ISIS effort.
If Islamists in the North Caucasus
find their exit to the Middle East blocked, they are likely to try to promote
their cause within the Russian Federation via terrorist acts, Amelina
says. And they are even more likely to
do so if they can mobilize Muslims on the basis of the argument that Russians
are increasingly hostile to Islam as such.
And it is clear from new polls that
Russian antagonism toward Islam and Muslims as such is growing “at a rapid
rate,” the result of government attacks on Islamist groups in the Middle East
and the ensuing media coverage. The
share of Russians who view Islam and Muslims positively has fallen
significantly since 2008, while the portion viewing them negatively has
risen.
What is especially worrisome is that there
are almost no Russians who do not have a position on this, a pattern that
suggests these attitudes may last for a long time, something Amelina suggests
Russian officials and the Federal Agency for Nationality Affairs must
acknowledge and combat.
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