Paul
Goble
Staunton, January 30 – Washington’s
policy of sanctions on members of the Russian elite is predicated on the idea
that such penalties will convince its members that Vladimir Putin can’t defend
them against the West and that they would be better off without him, Stanislav
Belkovsky says (mbk.media/sences/stanislav-belkovskij-dlya-putina-kremlevskij-spisok/).
That may prove to be the case,
although no one will know for certain until someone takes action; and the
slowness with which the US has acted, something typical of democratic
societies, the Russian commentator says, means that the sanctions may not have
that effect because Putin has time to turn the tables on the West over the
sanctions list.
Any leader can be expected to
counter actions against him in ways that limit the impact of those actions; and
Putin has proved himself a master in judo-like fashion in turning the actions
of the West to his advantage. In the day
since “the Kremlin list” was announced, Russian analysts have suggested that is
exactly what he will try to do.
Here are five ways in which that may
happen, at least according to Moscow analysts:
1.
The Putin line already is that the Kremlin list means that
in the eyes of the West, all Russians are enemies, and that his policies which
are based on Russia’s being a besieged fortress are thus confirmed rather than
challenged by what Washington has done. Consequently, the only possible Russian
response is greater unity around the Kremlin and more resolve to fight the West
(sobkorr.ru/news/5A7073AC3B02F.html
and pektr.press/news/2018/01/30/peskov-figuranty-kremlevskogo-doklada-de-fakto-nazvannymi-vragami-ssha/
2.
Many
Russians are not sure that the list will lead to sanctions on many of those
included, especially given the comments of the US ambassador in Moscow. They
believe that if the US actually imposed sanctions on the entire list, that
would weaken Moscow; but that if as expected, it doesn’t hit all of them, this
approach will only strengthen Putin’s hand at home and abroad (x-true.info/65927-rossiya-razvernet-kremlevskiy-doklad-ssha-v-svoyu-polzu.html,
forum-msk.org/material/news/14286698.html,
novayagazeta.ru/articles/2018/01/30/75325-spisok-est-a-sanktsiy-net and vz.ru/politics/2018/1/30/905961.html).
After all, some say, what does Putin have to lose by doing what he wants?
3.
Some
commentators are suggesting that the Kremlin list is only “an imitation of an
anti-Russian policy given what some American officials, including the president,
have been saying, and given that Moscow can use what Washington has done to
divide it further from Europe. If Europe doesn’t go along with the US, the
sanctions policy will backfire to Russia’s benefit given that Moscow’s major
goal is to split Europe off from the US (https://vz.ru/politics/2018/1/30/905842.html).
4.
Controversies
are already swirling over the list as to why some are on it and others are
not. While Putin may be “offended” that
he didn’t make the list (rbc.ru/politics/30/01/2018/5a70602b9a7947225b0dd39b?from=main),
many are very proud, seeing their inclusion as an indication of their loyalty
and thus of preferment in the future, exactly the opposite conclusion those
behind the sanctions hoped for (themoscowtimes.com/news/pride-disbelief-russias-elite-react-us-oligarch-blacklist-60327).
5.
The
Kremlin list is seen as working to Putin’s advantage in two other ways: On the
one hand, while it may inflict some short-term losses on the Russian economy,
it could become the basis for a new authoritarian modernization in which far fewer
Russian funds will now go abroad (rosbalt.ru/moscow/2018/01/30/1678473.html).
And on the other, it may even open the way to a Putin-Trump summit. Putin now
says he won’t respond to the list (rusk.ru/newsdata.php?idar=80006)
and that could set the stage for talks (svpressa.ru/politic/article/191752/).
Putin may not succeed, but he certainly isn't going to role over and play dead in the face of the latest action by Washington.
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