Paul Goble
Staunton,
September 30 – One of Ingushetia’s most influential taips has circulated a video
to all other clans in the republic that calls for annulling the border
agreement signed by Chechnya’s Ramzan Kadyrov and Ingushetia’s Yunus-Bek
Kadyrov four days ago and demanding a referendum on the issue and on the way in
which the republic leader is chosen.
The
Archak taip says that the accord was the result of a secret “conspiracy” by the
two leaders, that the Russian constitution requires a referendum on all border changes,
and that residents of the republic can’t sit quietly given the threat to their
republic this agreement represents (capost.media/news/society/ocherednoe-nedovolstvo-novymi-granitsami-chechni-i-ingushetii-uvidelo-svet/).
The earlier use of force against those
protesting the accord, Yevkurov’s order to bloggers not criticize the
agreement, and his defensiveness about suggestions he has given away too much
are likely to add to the problems within his republics (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/326025/, ekhokavkaza.com/a/29517559.html,
and onkavkaz.com/novosti/4873-evkurov-o-soglashenii-s-chechnei-nikto-nikomu-nichego-ne-otdaval-my-ustupili-drug-drugu-odinako.html).
But looming behind
these immediate problems are two larger ones. On the one hand, there appear to
be fears among some Ingush that Chechnya’s Kadyrov, possibly with Moscow’s
support, is preparing to assume control over Ingushetia as part of a regional
amalgamation plan based on the notion that economics rather than ethnicity
should determine borders.
And on the other, there are concerns
that Kadyrov may not limit himself to that but may demand territorial changes
and political concessions from Daghestan, again possibly with Moscow’s support,
to build up his own authority by offering to pacify that republic for Moscow,
something the Kremlin appears to want.
Moscow political scientist Dmitry
Oreshkin suggests both, pointing out that Kadyrov “can permit himself what for
example Yevkurov cannot.” The Chechen leader is very effective in advancing his
interests, including expanding his influence in and over neighboring republics
and doing so “not without Moscow’s support (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/325871/).
But
a fuller and more explicit discussion of these two possibilities is provided
today by Ukrainian commentator Ruslan Vesel in an article entitled “The Chechen
Empire. How Russia is Losing the Caucasus” in Kyiv’s Delovaya stolitsa (dsnews.ua/world/chechenskaya-imperiya-kak-rossiya-teryaet-kavkaz-28092018220000).
He argues that the
border accord won’t calm he situation but rather lead to a new outbreak of conflict
with greater force “after a certain time,” especially if Kadyrov presses his
case and is not reined in either in Ingushetia or in Daghestan where there is a
significant and often embattled Chechen ethnic community.
If Kadyrov were just speaking for
himself, far fewer people in Ingushetia or Daghestan would be worried, Vesel
says. But the Chechen leader appears to have Moscow’s backing to continue to
push his own agenda and therefore undoubtedly feels that no on in the region
can stop him from achieving his goals.
“The Kremlin needs to reward Kadyrov
for his past” services in Chechnya and Ukraine “and his possible future ones”
in neighboring Daghestan “where the Kremlin over the past year has been purging
local elites” and where it may need Kadyrov’s help to prevent an explosion,
Vesel continues.
“Ho this will end for the North
Caucasus and for Russia as a whole,” the Ukrainian commentator says, “is
difficult to say.” But the accord that
was supposed to solve problems hasn’t, and “the Ingush, earlier considered a
much more peaceful people than the Chechens hass learned a great deal from its
neighbors.”
Those lessons are not ones that Moscow
wants anyone to learn, and so more conflicts are certain to be ahead, possibly
at a level of intensity not seen in the North Caucasus for more than a
decade.
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