Paul
Goble
Staunton, October 1 – Since the
Soviet Union came apart, analysts have been unanimous that the change of any of
the borders among the successor states would spark demands for changes in
others even far from where the first border change occurred. Now, that Moscow
has illegally occupied Crimea, the fundamental truth of that observation is
being confirmed.
Officially, neither Russia nor
Kazakhstan has territorial claims against the other, a fact that was confirmed
by the border agreement between the two in 2005. But official positions are one thing, the
Russian blogger says; and “politics is quite another” and nationalists have
agendas (zen.yandex.ru/media/id/5cf423b7ddc81b00afb21858/na-kakie-territorii-rossii-pretenduet-kazahstan-5d919d92ec575b00b0c89457).
To the northeast of Kazakhstan, few
Kazakhs have aspirations to absorb Tuva, Khakassia or the Altay, regions
created on the basis of very different ethnic groups, although some of them are
relatively distant relations to the Turkic Kazakhs. But to the north and west of Kazakhstan, the
situation is different.
“This is the southern part of
Siberia and the Middle Volga, including in the first instance Astrakhan,
Volgograd and Saratov oblasts. There are sizeable Kazakh populations in each:
150,000 in Astrakhan, 46,000 in Volgograd, and 76,000 in Saratov, and some
Kazakh nationalists believe they should be part of Kazakhstan as a result.
The territory of Omsk, Orenburg,
Chelyabinsk and Kurgan oblasts is more sensitive. Historically, this was the
land of the Ural Cossacks, and to this day, ethnic Russian retain their
majority. But Orenburg was at the dawn
of Soviet times (1920-1925) the capital of what became Kazakhstan, something
many Kazakhs have not forgotten.
But Orenburg Oblast is sensitive for
Moscow for another reason. It is the bridge between Kazakhstan and the Turkic
republics of the Middle Volga and constitutes what some call “the Orenburg
Corridor” and which some Tatars and Bashkirs believe could open the way for
their independence.
On this critical land, see jamestown.org/program/the-orenburg-corridor-and-the-future-of-the-middle-volga/ and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2018/11/orenburg-corridor-threatens-russia-more.html. What makes this new article so intriguing is
that it suggests that there are among the Kazakhs people who are prepared to
respond – or at least that Moscow thinks so
But parts of the Russian Federation
are not the only objects of interest for Kazakh nationalists, the blogger
says. Some want to absorb
Karakalpakistan, now an autonomous formation within Uzbekistan but whose people
are linguistically and culturally closer to the Kazakhs and whose territory was
in the early Soviet period under Kazakh control.
There too there is an echo on the
other side of the border: At least some Karakalpaks want to become part of
Kazakhstan and more think that expanding relations with Kazakhstan will allow
them to get out from under Tashkent and move toward independence (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2019/10/karakalpak-activists-charge-tashkent.html
and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/06/karakalpak-separatists-in-uzbekistan.html).
And the Russian blogger ends by
posting a map suggesting that some in Kazakhstan would even like to absorb part
of Uzbekistan, including that country’s capital, Tashkent, although the author
provides no evidence and this writer has not seen any expression of interest in
this in Kazakh nationalist writings.
Nonetheless, one can only agree with
the blogger’s contention that people are talking “and the example of Crimea for
many has turned out to be infectious.”
No comments:
Post a Comment