Paul Goble
Staunton,
November 4 – There are few subjects more taboo in the Russian media under
Vladimir Putin than evidence that the non-Russian regions of the country are
interested in pursuing their own independent course, Ukrainian commentator
Pavlo Podobed says. And nowhere is the ban on coverage more severe than with
regard to the peoples of the Middle Volga
In
an essay for Tyzhden, he notes that “thanks
to the successful manipulations of Moscow,” people in the West ignore what is
coming out of the North Caucasus because they have been conditioned to view any
independent mindedness there as associated with terrorism (tyzhden.ua/Politics/220313 in
Ukrainian; afterempire.info/2018/11/01/orinbor/
in Russian).
But
most people know little or nothing about another and even more important region
of Russia “which Russians call the Middle Volga and the indigenous population
Idel-Ural” and which presents Moscow with a threat that the regime is
constantly thinking about but cannot completely suppress, the Orenburg
corridor.
(For
some rare exceptions to that pattern of neglect, see this author’s articles at jamestown.org/program/the-orenburg-corridor-and-the-future-of-the-middle-volga/,
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2018/03/moscow-analyst-denounces-kazakh.html
and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2013/11/window-on-eurasia-separatism-both.html).
The Middle Volga region consisted of
six republics: Erzyan-Mokshania (Mordvinia), Mari El, Udmurtia, Tatarstan,
Udmurtia and Bashkortostan, the first three of which are Finno-Ugric and the
second three Turkic and Muslim. Moscow recognizes their distinctiveness but
does everything it can to suppress its meaning.
It has gutted the institutions these
republics have and it has driven nationalist dissidents to their deaths,
imprisonment or exile. The governments have fallen in line, but even they were
not willing to swallow Moscow’s attack on their national languages which they
see as central to their survival as peoples, Podobed writes.
Ever more often, he continues, members
of these peoples recall earlier attempts to make Idel-Ural an independent
state, most significantly in the first years of Soviet power, the centenaries
of which are now being marked in ways that Moscow would rather not have them
remembered.
But the peoples of Idel-Ural do
remember even if others do not what Moscow did to make the achievement of their
goal of independence impossible. Stalin’s 1936 constituiton specified that
union republics have the right in principle to freely leave the USSR while
autonomous republics do not.
To make that right plausible,
Podobed notes, the constitution specified that union republics had to have a
border with a foreign state while autonomous republics didn’t need one. And in the case of the Middle Volga peoples,
Moscow arranged things so that they didn’t have a common border with even a
non-Russian union republic.
That arrangement has come to be
known as the Orenburg corridor, a sliver of predominantly ethnic Russian
territory between the peoples of Idel-Ural and Kazakhstan which since 1991 has
been an independent country. In
1989-1991, with the growth of nationalism, many in Idel-Ural talked about
liquidating this obstacle but weren’t able to do it.
Indeed, such attempts seemed
completely “fantastic,” the Ukrainian commentator says. The share of ethnic Russians
in Kazakhstan was roughly equal to the share of ethnic Kazakhs there, and the share
of ethnic Russians opposite the Orenburg corridor was higher still. But things have changed: now, there are far
fewer Russians and ever more Kazakhs are anti-Russian.
Earlier this year, Podobed notes, the
Kazinform news agency put out a map of Kazakhstan which included the part of
Orenburg oblast known as the Orenburg corridor. It was quickly taken down and
even condemned but the deed was done (youtube.com/watch?v=E7WxaVvEmDY&fbclid=IwAR1JyT3ddHZaPwArOzMPMBvrE-njsUNL8ypLo1u9oNDpGtfzKk3nb6y6xtI).
It then came out that the leader of
the Kazinform agency at the time, Askar Umarov, was a passionate supporter of
the return of “Orinbor” to Kazakhstan, something that would eliminate the
corridor and open the way to the independence of Idel-ural or at least its more
intense pursuit (youtube.com/watch?v=UyTfh7MgSSc&fbclid=IwAR13jcfeAzSs-q_H7nrz0YhJvoGLzZ7S5KSSXg5QAwrgaE-apXSS1Xsr1rM).
“It is obvious,” the Ukrainian
commentator stresses, “that Idel-Ural is the Achilles’ heel of the Russian
Federation.” If it collapses, then the process of the exit of six republics
will begin. “Today Moscow controls this lever,” but if it doesn’t, then, “Moscow
will be separated from Siberia” with all the consequences thereto.
The Middle Volga is changing,”
Podobed says. The number of Russians there is declining and the involvement of
Turkey in the region is increasing. “If Ukraine is interested in a victory over
Russia, we need to reflect about non-military means of having an impact on the
enemy.” One of them is to support the aspirations of the peoples of Idel-Ural.
The Ukrainian commentator proposes
three concrete steps: the creation in Ukraine of an analytic center about the
Middle Volga, preventing any extradition of Middle Volga leaders who seek
asylum in Ukraine, and support for existing Idel-Ural movements like the Free
Idel-Ural one, whose representatives work in Ukraine and in EU countries.
The Orenburg corridor is the key to the
future not only for the peoples of Idel-Ural but for Ukrainians as well, he
concludes.
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