Putin Engaged in an Arms Race with Himself, Adding Another Burden on Russia, Mukhin Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 2 – Many argue that the Soviet Union collapsed because of falling oil prices and an arms race with the West that Moscow could no afford to compete in. Now, oil prices are falling, and Moscow could avoid an arms race. But instead, Vladimir Putin with his “imperial ambitions” is “continuing an arms race with himself,” Maksim Mukhin says.

            The Kyiv analyst says that by spending so much on the military when oil prices have collapsed opens the possibility that “Russia may repeat the fate of the USSR” (apostrophe.ua/article/politics/2020-05-01/milliardyi-na-armiyu-chem-auknutsya-dlya-putina-ego-imperskie-ambitsii/32531).

            According to SIPRI, the US has reduced defense spending by 15 percent in inflation adjusted terms since 2010, but Russia has increased its by 30 percent. The US posture doesn’t justify what Moscow is doing but countries closer by like Ukraine, where spending has gone up, may, at least in the eyes of the Kremlin.

            Aleksey Melnik, vice president of the Ukrainian Razumkov Center, says that defense spending reflects growing tensions among major countries and the spreading acceptance of the idea that military conflict among them is not only possible but inevitable and even acceptable as each tries to dominate its region.

            Nikolay Beleskov of Kyiv’s National Institute for Strategic Research agrees. He points out that the US is not spending anything like what it did at the start of the Cold War but Russia is rapidly approaching a point where it is spending more. Thus, the US stance does not explain what Moscow is doing whatever Moscow says.

            And Ukrainian defense analyst Aleksandr Kovalenko adds that in his view, “Putin’s main motive lies in his revanchist-imperialist ambitions” on the territory of the former Soviet space. But without high oil prices, he can afford this only by cutting spending in the social sphere, something ever less sustainable as the crisis bites the Russian population.

            Indeed, the fact that the Russian defense ministry has had to push off the completion dates for many projects by several years suggests that the cuts Putin has imposed on his people haven’t been sufficient to pay for his military expansionism, especially under conditions of sanction and economic crisis.

            “Under these conditions,” Kovalenko says, “the Kremlin will either have to reduce spending on the defense sector or economize in the social sphere.” If he continues to choose the latter, this “could lead to a social explosion.” Already there are indications that the Russian people are no longer prepared to tighten their belts further for Putin’s adventurism.

           

            But if he continues to spend billions of the military, this could easily “play an evil joke on Putin,” depriving him of his country that he wants to make the center of an empire once again.