Paul
Goble
Staunton, May 21 – There is near
universal agreement that the world after the pandemic passes will be different
than the one that existed before it, and many Russian commentators argue that
the coronavirus will not only undermine Vladimir Putin because of the weaknesses
in his system it has revealed but even threaten the territorial integrity of
the Russian Federation.
But not everyone believes that. St.
Petersburg commentator Marina Shapovalova is one of them, and she argues that
the Russians as a result of their fears will turn even more to Putin and thus
he will find himself in an even stronger position after the coronavirus than he
did before (gorod-812.ru/kovid-rabotaet-na-putina/).
Given
Russian traditions, she says, it is only necessary to frighten the population
enough and it will agree to any extraordinary measures, a tightening of the screws,
and an increasing role for the police. “The objective character of the threat
is not important: what is important is how the population evaluates it” and to
whom it gives credit for its survival.
“In
a large state of an imperial type,” Shapovalova continues, “people in the
provinces in fact live as it were without powers.” They look only to Putin for
their salvation because “the local authorities in the eyes of the people are
not the powers: they aren’t real, don’t control any means, and nothing depends
on them.”
“The
local leaders are Putin’s slaves.” Putin is for them all that matters. “The population up to now needs the distant
Kremlin as a force that can discipline local authorities and not its own rights
of self-organization which in the end are viewed as the personal responsibility
of each” rather than being part of what local officials can deal with.
As
a result, she concludes, “the alternative in the eyes of the ordinary Russia
looks to be the following: either the preservation of ‘the status quo’ – that is
the eternal Putin in the distant Kremlin – or what? Collapse? Anarchy? The
arbitrary actions of local elites who are everywhere suspect? The disintegration
of Russia?”
The
number of those infected with the coronavirus and the number of deaths from it
continue to rise, although many Russians now say that both figures are being
kept low by officials who intimidate doctors into not identifying infections
and cause of death properly (novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/05/21/85471-nesvoboda-luchshe-chem-svoboda,
As regional governments struggle to
decide how to reopen, Russian experts are wrestling with what the metrics
should be to determine what and when stores, firms, churches and other public
activities can be restored to normal functioning safely (echo.msk.ru/blog/ssobyanin/2646867-echo/
and regnum.ru/news/2957253.html).
Complicating these decisions is
increasing evidence that the authorities aren’t functioning well, aren’t
serving the interests of the population but rather allowing ambulances to avoid
coming to places where they suspect infections are and forcing doctors to work
without protection and thus increasingly dying as a result (nv.ua/opinion/rossiya-koronavirus-chto-skryvaet-putin-i-zachem-poslednie-novosti-50089444.html, kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5EC645A060530§ion_id=4354A73076FEC,
kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5EC620F794D3F§ion_id=4354A73076FEC
and dw.com/ru/комментарий-российские-врачи-спасители-людей-или-заложники-власти/a-53525141).
The economic impact of the pandemic
is also increasing. Russians have doubled the number of title loans on their
cars to try to make ends meet, an indication of just how tough things are for
many (krizis-kopilka.ru/archives/76505). Eighty percent say the government hasn’t done
enough, but nearly 40 percent don’t expect it will (snob.ru/entry/193046/).
Looking further out, while many
Russian firms are now allowing people to work from home, only four percent of
them say that they expect to make a complete transition from working on site to
working at home, according to a survey of 500 major companies (sovross.ru/news/48836). That figure
is far lower than in most other countries.
Faced with both the pandemic and a
growing economic crisis, attitudes in the population about many things are
changing. Large numbers of Russians are now ignoring government self-isolation
orders, “the first in post-Soviet Russian history mass campaign of civic disobedience,” according to one
commentator (region.expert/rf-pandemic/).
Increasingly, sociologists say,
Russians are concluding that things will never be the same again either
economically or politically (lenta.ru/articles/2020/05/21/agranovskii/)
and are expressing concerns about the violation of their rights, although less
their political ones than their right to medical care (ng.ru/economics/2020-05-21/4_7867_research.html).
In the Federal Assembly, some
members are talking about the need to legalize the steps the government has
taken to fight the pandemic, implicitly admitting that many things that have
been done were violations of existing law and the constitution (ria.ru/20200521/1571764096.html),
and two senators have called for laying the groundwork to end countersanctions that
have hurt Russians more than foreigners (svpressa.ru/economy/article/265928/).
o Meanwhile, among
other pandemic-related developments in Russia, there were the following today:
·
Chechen head Ramzan Kadyrov has been hospitalized in
Moscow with what doctors say appears to be a coronavirus infection (kavpolit.com/articles/interfaks_u_kadyrova_zapodozrili_koronavirus-38667/).
·
Like other world leaders, Vladimir
Putin is turning to the military to deal with the collapse of health care
arrangements. He has deployed the military in Daghestan and that is likely to
serve as a model for his actions elsewhere (nvo.ng.ru/nvoweek/2020-05-21/2_1093_week.html).
·
Some
may flee the big cities to the countryside because of the pandemic, but others
and likely more will leave the regions to go to the megalopolises which will
receive more help from the government and thus will recover more quickly,
experts say (ng.ru/blogs/filatov/pochemu-ottok-kadrov-iz-regionov-usilitsya-v-blizhayshie-dva-goda.php).
·
The Russian government faced the tricky task of
reporting that a jet from the US containing 50 artificial ventilators had
arrived from the US given that this aid from abroad highlights the shortcomings
of Russia’s medical equipment industry
and of the Kremlin’s anti-Western stance (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5EC6984D507B3§ion_id=4354A73076FEC).
·
Russian
Rail has announced plans to put in place automatic temperature measuring
devices in major stations (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5EC6645B7DD71§ion_id=4354A73076FEC).
·
A
Russian psychologist who gives advice to celebrities says that divorces are
spreading among such people and will spread to other Russians as the pandemic
continues (dailystorm.ru/kultura/elena-perelygina-s-prihodom-karantina-razvodov-budet-bolshe).
·
Shamans
in the Altai Republic have assembled to ask the spirits to block the spread of the
coronavirus in their republic (nazaccent.ru/content/33183-shamany-respubliki-altaj-poprosili-duhov-ostanovit.html).
·
And
a millennial cult in Siberia welcomes the pandemic because its leaders see the
infection as a confirmation of their apocalyptic predictions (themoscowtimes.com/2020/05/21/for-this-russian-messianic-cult-coronavirus-isolation-is-a-blessing-a70330).
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