Capital Flight from Russia in First Five Months of 2020 Greater than in All of 2019

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 12 – The pandemic and the associated economic crisis is hitting Russia ever harder, with the Central Bank reporting today that more capital left Russia during the first five months of 2020 than did during all of 2019 and this is accelerating with 9.6 billion US dollars leaving in May compared to 6.9 billion in April (krizis-kopilka.ru/archives/77226).

            Moreover, in May, as a result of the shut down of much of the economy and the collapse of oil prices on which the Russian authorities have relied, the money coming into the federal budget of the Russian Federation fell by 41 percent, with little prospect that it is going to recover anytime soon (krizis-kopilka.ru/archives/77266).

            And while consumer demand has never played the role in Russia it plays in the West, the collapse of consumer spending has become worrisome to the powers that be, and they have finally decided to provide expanded benefits to those who have lost their jobs and cut back spending (krizis-kopilka.ru/archives/77201).

            The pandemic continued largely unabated despite upbeat statements by Russian officials. Over the last 24 hours, 8706 new cases of the infection were registered, bringing the cumulative total to 520,129.  One hundred fourteen more Russians died of the virus, bringing that total to 6829 (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5EE350BF5CCA8).

            These official data were increasingly criticized as understatements because of the contradictory figures issued (vedomosti.ru/opinion/articles/2020/06/10/832379-smertelnaya-pravda) and because there are more reports that some regions haven’t published mortality data at all since the pandemic began (zona.media/article/2020/06/11/chelyabinsk-top-secret).

            Some places opened up, others closed, and officials had to deal with the confusion this created, with the St. Petersburg governor having to point out that his band on mass meetings won’t affect the Victory Parade on June 24 (gov.spb.ru/press/governor/190365/) and officials elsewhere tightening restrictions because of new hot spots (eastrussia.ru/news/na-karantin-iz-za-covid-19-zakryt-poselok-v-magadanskoy-oblasti/ and eastrussia.ru/news/sledovateli-ishchut-vinovnykh-vo-vspyshke-koronavirusa-v-kolonii-v-eao/).

            Moscow continued to push ahead with plans to hold the constitutional amendment referendum on July 1, distributing guidance to local officials on how to ensure that workers they control would vote early and in large numbers to ensure that the Putin measures would pass (zona.media/article/2020/06/12/metodichka).

            And election officials, many of whom fear exposure to the coronavirus, have called for the government to provide them with insurance if they are to work the polls (znak.com/2020-06-12/chlenov_izbirkomov_predlozhili_strahovat_ot_covid_19_iz_za_golosovaniya_vo_vremya_pandemii).

            Medical officials are testing Russians in various regions to see how many people have been exposed and developed antibodies and have announced plans for testing possible vaccines as they become available (sovsekretno.ru/news/v-trekh-regionakh-rf-provedut-issledovanie-na-populyatsionnyy-immunitet-k-covid-19/  and sovsekretno.ru/news/dve-gruppy-lyudey-otobrany-v-rf-dlya-ispytaniya-vaktsiny-ot-koronavirusa/).

            Vladimir Putin remains in protected seclusion, something that observers suggest says everything one needs to know about the real state of the pandemic in Russia (krizis-kopilka.ru/archives/77230). And the Kremlevsky bezBashennik telegram channel says the entire upper echelon of the government plans to go into seclusion this fall after it gets through the referendum and elections, leaving the Russian people to their fates (krizis-kopilka.ru/archives/77203).

            Meanwhile, in other pandemic-related news from Russia,

·         The Saudis are reportedly considering cancelling this year’s haj, infuriating the 30,000 plus Muslims in the Russian Federation. Unable to make the main haj, they may turn to local holy places which are often controlled by more radical mullahs (doshdu.com/saudovskaja-aravija-mozhet-otmenit-hadzh/).

·         Senior naval officers ignored social distancing and mask rules while attending a ceremony in Severodvinsk, even though conditions there are so problematic that the authorities have closed off access to many others (thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2020/06/no-social-distancing-nuke-sub-ceremony-covid-19-severodvinsk and gov-murman.ru/info/news/366490/).

·         St. Petersburg officials say they have had better luck in controlling the pandemic because residents are more cultured and disciplined than people in Moscow (znak.com/2020-06-12/elin_obyasnil_pochemu_v_sankt_peterburge_ne_vvodilsya_zhestkiy_karantin_kak_v_moskve).

·         Volunteers in made cities and neighbors in small towns and villages have worked hard to protect collateral victims of the coronavirus pandemic, homeless animals and those whose owners are suffering from the virus or restricted in going out (themoscowtimes.com/2020/06/11/how-russias-homeless-animals-survived-the-quarantine-a70546).