Kremlin Counting on Regions to Win July 1 Referendum, Potentially Elevating Their Importance

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 8 – Because residents of Moscow and other major cities are more likely to boycott the July 1 referendum vote or vote against the constitutional amendments if they do (realtribune.ru/news/authority/4419), the Kremlin is putting pressure on officials beyond the ring road to turn out the vote and ensure that Putin’s proposals are approved.

            On the one hand, this is an entirely natural approach given that voters outside the megalopolises have traditionally been Putin’s main supporters and willing to follow his line. But on the other, because there are relatively fewer voters in these regions than in the big cities, Moscow is making demands on regional heads that may be greater than they can deliver.

            That opens the way to both falsification of the results outside of Moscow, falsification that the Kremlin likely assumes it can hide more effectively, and to an increase in the influence of the regions in the capital if the regional heads are able to deliver the vote the Kremlin wants. Those who do will get preferment, and the regions they head may have a larger voice at the center.

            The regions have been told that they must deliver a percentage of all voters no less than they did in the 2018 presidential elections, 65 percent, and that they must ensure that a majority vote in favor, Open Media says (openmedia.io/news/n3/ot-60-i-vyshe-na-plebiscite-po-popravkam-regionam-velyat-dat-rezultaty-ne-xuzhe-chem-na-vyborax-prezidenta/).

            Vitaly Kovin, a specialist on election law at the Golos organization, says that this requirement almost guarantees that there will be massive falsification in some places because the governors are being asked to come up with so many “yes” votes and because they know that there is no law governing referendums and so they aren’t really violating anything (club-rf.ru/interview/399).

            The situation is complicated by the pandemic. In some regions where it is still raging, getting the numbers the Kremlin wants will be almost impossible; in others, far less so.  The Kremlin knows what the real conditions are and undoubtedly will take that into consideration as it makes its demands on regional heads.

            Of course, since the entire exercise is illegitimate, the numbers the Kremlin wants won’t make any difference except to Moscow propagandists. But that will be enough because the entire exercise will be largely forgotten only a few weeks after it takes place, Kovin continues, yet another reason it will be hard to mobilize voters in the regions in the summer during a pandemic.

            Other specialists on elections are also skeptical that the regions will be able to pull off “the administrative miracle” the Kremlin seeks. One of them is Andrey Maksimov who says many regions would likely fall short unless they engage in falsification by administrative pressure or otherwise (club-rf.ru/detail/4202).

            According to another, Nina Kurtyukova of the Civic Observer project, reports are already coming in that government employees are being pressed to vote early online so the powers that be will know exactly how many additional votes they will need on July 1 to make sure they meet Kremlin quotas.

            To make such machinations possible, she adds, the authorities in the regions have done everything they can to reduce the ability of observers either singly or in alliance with each other to observe what is going on. That by itself sends a message about what is likely to happen given Kremlin expectations.

            Maksimov, who is vice president of the All-Russian Association of Political Consultants, agrees.  And he says that as a result, those governors who don’t find ways to produce the miracle Moscow demands are likely to find themselves ousted just as those who did not deliver a pro-Putin vote two years ago did.

            But despite all this, there is clearly one important development that deserves to be mentioned: The cities having turned against Putin on this issue, the regions have become more important to him. The regions will certainly recognize this and make demands.  If they are ignored, tensions between them and the center will only increase.   

            That is all the more likely because Putin has just required the regions to bear primary responsibility for responding to the coronavirus pandemic. They are unlikely to let him forget their services and demand some form of compensation.