Population of Only One Predominantly Russian Region Now Growing in Absence of Immigration, Experts Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 30 – The only federal subject whose population is predominantly ethnic Russian and which is projected to increase over the next five years is Tyumen, according to analysts at the Moscow Institute for Digital Transformations and Research on Economic Trends. Others may increase in number but only if there is significant net immigration.

            Many non-Russian areas however, including Daghestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia, Khanty-Mansiisk, Yamalo-Nenets, the Altai Republic, Tyva, Buryatia, and Sakha, will show population growth with more births than deaths (argumenti.ru/society/2020/05/666466 and nazaccent.ru/content/33258-eksperty-k-2024-godu-estestvennaya-pribyl.html).

            That pattern will have three consequences, the experts say. First, the population of the Russian Federation will decline; second, the share of non-Russians in that population will increase relative to that of ethnic Russians; and third, there will be more migration both within the country and from abroad.

            Internal immigration will increase, mostly within federal districts rather than between them, the Institute says. That likely means that predominantly ethnic Russian federal subjects in the North Caucasus, Siberia and the Far East will become less Russian faster than those elsewhere.

            Migration will also tend to equalize incomes and unemployment levels, as people move to places where there are higher wages and salaries and more jobs.  And in some places, especially in the Central Federal District, the arrival of immigrants from abroad will overwhelm internal migration but still reduce the share of ethnic Russians there as well.