Paul Goble
Staunton, December 3 – There is a great danger, Vladimir Volgayev says, that in the wake of the November 10 declaration on the Qarabagh dispute that provocations against Russian peacekeepers will occur, either by Armenians who object from the accord or Azerbaijanis who want even more than they received.
And that danger is greater because there are forces in the West who support Armenian aspirations, as misplaced as they are and because Turkey wants to use its diplomatic gains to press for an even larger role for Ankara in the Caucasus and Central Asia, the Sovershenno Sekretno commentator says (sovsekretno.ru/articles/riski-dlya-rossiyskikh-mirotvortsev/).
If any provocations do occur, Volgayev says, Moscow must be ready to back up its peacekeepers either by deploying its Caspian flotilla over the shores of Azerbaijan and especially Baku or its forces in the Gyumri base in Armenia against Yerevan depending on which side is responsible for any moves against the peacekeepers.
“In the South Caucasus,” he continues, “everything is just beginning.” And Moscow must be ready: Its “peacekeepers and the military base of Russia and also our border forces as before are the only reliable guarantee that no one country can attack our ally Armenia” and that Armenian “hot heads” won’t be tempted to ignore that reality.
While Volgayev is not in a position to speak authoritatively about Moscow’s plans, his suggestion that the Russian government must be ready to draw on its Caspian flotilla and its base in Armenia if there are provocations likely is something that many in the Kremlin are thinking about and very much want both Armenians and Azerbaijanis to recognize as a possibility.
That makes monitoring any shift in the dislocation of Russian naval vessels on the Caspian and any build up of forces at Gyumri critical because moves in either place may signal that Moscow views the situation to be deteriorating and is preparing to counter it with forces under its control.
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