Russia Major Beneficiary from Unblocking of Rail Routes in South Caucasus, Baliyev Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, December 5 – Both because Moscow controls the Armenian railways and because the unblocking of what Russians call “the Trans-Siberian of the Trans-Caucasus” will lead to an expansion of trade with Iran and Turkey, Russia stands to become perhaps the largest beneficiary of this provision of the November 10 declaration, Aleksey Baliyev says.

            The Russian commentator argues the 850 kilometers of rail line along the land border with Iran and Turkey carried enormous amount of freight from the 1930s to the 1980s and allowed Russia to dominate the region. The new agreement will restore Russia’s position (ritmeurasia.org/news--2020-12-05--transsib-zakavkazja-vozvraschaetsja-v-evraziju-52217).

            This line, Baliyev continues, has stood idle since the middle of 1991 as a result of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict; but now there is hope that it will come back. Russia is not the only interested party, of course. Armenia and Azerbaijan are as well as Iran, Turkey, Belarus, and countries in Europe looking for a better transit route than the ones now available.

            Such a reopening of this line, he argues, will have enormous economic and geopolitical consequences, economic because of the boost in trade and earnings from that and geopolitical because the use of this line will lead shippers to use Russia as the primary transit route for the further movement of goods.

            It will also lead to the more intensive exploitation of mines along the route, something Russian companies can again be the dominant players even as the mines benefit both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

            But because this route has been inactive since 1991, much of it must be completely rebuilt. That will be expensive, but even before that can be done, there are many issues having to do with control and passage that must be negotiated. Russia and Azerbaijan will be the primary parties, but Armenia, even though its railways belong to Russia, will also have a say.

            On the difficulties ahead and the ways in which other players including Iran and Turkey are likely to act, possibly slowing progress toward the reopening of this line, see this author’s discussion of the issue at jamestown.org/program/a-railway-war-is-about-to-break-out-in-the-south-caucasus/).