Handicapping Possible Successors to Patriarch Kirill

Paul Goble

            Staunton, August 11 – Because of Patriarch Kirill’s failure in stopping Ukrainian autocephaly and his sometimes fraught relations with the Kremlin, many observers especially those far from the church regularly predict that he will eventually be succeeded by Metropolitan Tikhon (Shevkunov), long identified as Putin’s confessor and favorite hierarch.

            But a new examination of attitudes within the Russian Orthodox Church leadership suggests that Tikhon is anything but a foregone conclusion and that other churchmen, including perhaps most prominently Metropolitan Kirill of Kazan may be far more likely to emerge as the current patriarch’s successor.

            “If elections for the Moscow patriarch were held today,” the Cerkvach telegram channel says, the results would likely be different than many are saying, with the two most frequently mentioned successors, Metropolitan Illarion and Metropolitan Tikhon, having serious shortcomings (t.me/cerkvach/3408).

            Ilarion has never fit in with the church hierarchy, the telegram channel says; and Tikhon, while he does have support from the Kremlin and the political establishment, has a lot of work to do to win support within the church. That may be possible with time, but it is not the case at present, the channel suggests.

            A third churchman sometimes mentioned as a successor, Metropolitan Dionisiy, who is the patriarchal administrator at present, is happy with his current position and would be quite pleased to remain in it even under a new patriarch. He therefore isn’t going to seek that position for himself.

            The covid pandemic has undermined some potential candidates because of the problems they have had in controlling their subordinates on vaccinations. Among them is Metropolitan Georgy of Nizhny Novgorod. And Metropolitan Merkury has faded because of all the scandals at Sofrino which he bears responsibility for.

            At present, the telegram channel says, the churchman who appears to be on the rise and consequently quite possibly the odds-on favorite to succeed Kirill is another Kirill, the metropolitan of Kazan and Tatarstan, who has attracted attention for his construction of a cathedral there and his work with the Islamic community.