Kremlin Risks Having Russians View Conflict in Ukraine Not as Russia’s War but as Putin’s, Sharafutdinova Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Mar. 1 – Vladimir Putin clearly hoped that his invasion of Ukraine would solidify the sense of “’us versus them’ between Russia and the West that he has used to “perpetuate the legitimacy” of his regime by producing “a spirit of patriotism and unity in the face of foreign threats,” Gulnaz Sharafutdinova says.

            But the opposition to the war among Russians is now sufficiently widespread and strong that there is a very real risk that they will no longer accept the conflict in Ukraine as “Russia’s war” but instead see it as “Putin’s war,” with potentially devastating consequences to the Kremlin (ridl.io/stavka-kremlya-na-obshhestvennoe-mnenie-v-kontekste-vojny-s-ukrainoj/).

            The professor at the Russian Institute of the Royal College in London says that the invasion was obviously intended to solidify among Russians the sense of their exclusion from the international community that Putin has been talking about; and it has certainly done that. But the war has had other consequences as well.

            Given problems at home and the end of the post-Crimea euphoria, Sharafutdinova continues, talk about foreign interference and the need to confront the West was “the only way this leadership could stay in power. The path of war … can thus be seen in hindsight as a way the Russian leadership chose to preserve the political status quo.”

            A war is “the ultimate way of constructing a world based on ‘us versus them,’” she says. It is the most powerful means to bring Russian national identity to the fore and making it the dominant position from which ordinary Russians assess their lives and surroundings.” Rulers can use it to justify their position by appealing to “war-time patriotism.”

Sergey Bodrov, a Russian TV hero, says of the current situation: “you cannot speak badly about your own during the war. Never. Even if they are wrong … This simple rule is old and primitive but it works. When the war ends, then yes, you can say this was wrong … and we shouldn’t repeat it.” (youtube.com/watch?v=dHlxnejgIuQ).

For the present, this logic still works for many Russians, Sharafutdinova says. But continuing anti-war demonstrations may change that, with ever more Russians taking their lead from these and from the Internet rather than state television. If that happens, what today is viewed as “Russia’s war” could soon be viewed by the Russian people as “Putin’s” alone.

If that happens, the political consequences are likely to be profound.