Russia Must Revive Siberian River Diversion Plan to Keep Central Asian Countries in Its Orbit, Hydrologist Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Jan. 31 – Water shortages in Central Asia caused by rapid population growth and already provoking conflicts among the countries of that region are about to get much worse because of plans in Afghanistan to divert waters from the Amu-Darya basin for its own use, according to Andrey Zakhvatov, a hydrologist who specializes on Tajikstan.

            That means that water wars in Central Asia are likely to intensify and that Russia may simultaneously be drawn into them and lose influence in the region as the countries seek not a common approach but arms and support from outside powers so that each can gain the water it needs (ng.ru/dipkurer/2023-01-29/11_8646_water.html).

            There is a solution that will not only offer Central Asia the chance to develop without water wars and Russia the chance to cement its influence in the region: Siberian river division, a plan talked about for more than a century but rejected by Moscow during the reign of Mikhail Gorbachev, Zakhvatov says.

            Central Asia’s water problems could be “completely eliminated by a transfer of part of the Ob River’s flow to Kazakhstan and Central Asia,” he says. Not only would it revive the Aral Sea and address the needs of consumers and industry in the region, but it would importantly “forever ‘tie’” the Central Asian countries to Russia.

            Unfortunately, Zakhvatov says, there seems to be little interest in doing so at present. Central Asians aren’t focused on the possibility and Moscow is busy with “other things.” What that means is that water wars in the region are increasingly likely and the decline in Russian influence there is ever more certain.