South Ossetia Seeks to Join RF-Belarus Union State But Moscow Concerned about Reaction of Georgia

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 25 – Three times since 2008, the partially recognized breakaway republic of South Ossetia has asked to become part of the Russian Federation; and three times, Moscow has said no, although there are many officials including former president Dmitry Medvedev who favor the idea.

            Now, Tsinkval is trying a new tactic: it has asked to join the union state of the Russian Federation and Belarus where it has already had observer status. Again, it appears likely that Moscow will squelch this effort not because of concerns about international  law but rather about the undoubtedly hostile response to such a move by Tbilisi.

            Aleksey Anpilogov, head of the Moscow Foundation for the Support of Scholarly Research and the Development of Civic Initiatives, suggests that this is the correct logic. International law doesn’t reflect Russia’s interests, but concerns about the consequences of Russian actions do (svpressa.ru/politic/article/384667/).

            At some point, Moscow may decide that it is in Russia’s interests to allow South Ossetia to join the union state or even become part of the Russian Federation, Anpilogov says. But those who see South Ossetia becoming part of either soon and becoming the basis for the revival of the USSR are jumping the gun.