Before End of 2024, Putin Will Abolish Russia’s Non-Russian Republics, Gabbasov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Mar. 18 – Ruslan Gabbasov, a Bashkir political émigré leader, says that before the end of this year, Vladimir Putin will abolish the non-Russian republics; and lest such an action spark the kind of generalized explosion that could threaten his regime, the Kremlin leader is now engaged in Stalin-style repression in Bashkortostan, one of the most restive republics.

            Such actions follow from the logic of Putin’s position, the Bashkir opposition figure now living in Lithuania says; and the sweep of repressions he is currently visiting on Bashkortostan in the wake of the January 17 protests there shows just how frightened the Kremlin is of popular anger and how willing it is to use any means necessary to contain it.

            The scope of the repression since January 17 has largely escaped notice outside of Bashkortostan. Russian media aren’t reporting what is happening, the arrests and charges against both those who participated and those who didn’t have not been publicized, and many Bashkirs are afraid to talk to anyone about what is happening.

            Moreover, even the reports about the arrests and charges against those who took part in the January protests have failed to follow the way Moscow and its Bashkortostan agents have used this occasion to go after all of the Bashkir opposition and to tar it with the same brush by blaming the entire situation on the work of foreign agents.

            But the IdelReal portal has now published a comprehensive report on the situation, one showing that the authorities are using both tactics from the Stalinist past and  the latest technology such as tracking Bashkirs by using their cellphones (idelreal.org/a/oni-vrode-hotyat-chelovek-sto-pozakryvat-v-bashkortostane-prodolzhayutsya-zaderzhaniya-i-aresty-po-baymakskomu-delu-/32863001.html).

            The most consequential aspect of this report, however, is Gabbasov’s prediction, which IdelReal quotes. There are two reasons for concluding that he may be right. On the one hand, Putin’s past regional amalgamation efforts have generally followed on the heels of his re-elections.

And on the other, the Kremlin leader has increasingly talked about how Moscow’s failure to abolish the union republics led to the demise of the USSR with the implication being obvious that if he doesn’t abolish the non-Russian republics within the Russian Federation something similar could happen to his country.

Moreover, Putin, given his current drive to recover the empire, may be impressed by those who argue that restoring a Greater Russia will be impossible unless Moscow first does away with non-Russian republics within the Russian Federation lest acquisitions demand equal treatment (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2021/08/abolishing-non-russian-republics.html).

But if Putin does move to demolish the non-Russian republics, he will face not only dangers from these republics whose peoples will certainly resist both politically and in the streets (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2019/03/five-ways-non-russian-republics-can.html) but others as well. If Putin destroys the republics, he is likely to spark independence movements in ethnic Russian regions in their stead (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2012/11/window-on-eurasia-abolishing-non.html