Moscow Facing Growing Problems with Its Icebreaker Fleet, Allowing China and Other Countries to Gain Advantages on the Northern Sea Route

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 15 – Russia is keeping its icebreakers in service long after they were slated to be retired because it has been forced to delay or cancel programs for building new ones as a result of the West’s sanctions regime; and those trends are sparking fears of disaster on the one hand and allowing China and other countries to gain on Russia in this sector.

            Russia’s problems are longstanding and intensifying, experts say, and call into question Putin’s plans for the development of the Northern Sea Route (ridl.io/ru/arkticheskaya-ekonomika-rossii-na-fone-vojny/ and ispionline.it/en/publication/moscows-arctic-projects-amidst-the-war-sanctions-lng-projects-icebreakers-and-the-northern-sea-route-178452).

            Moreover, while Russia retains a large lead over other countries in terms of the number of icebreakers, a lead that Russian experts believe will allow Moscow to continue to dominate the icebreaker balance (rosbalt.ru/news/2024-07-15/zapad-pugayut-boevye-ledokoly-stroyaschiesya-v-peterburge-5139174), other countries are actively developing their fleets.

            Among those doing so now are Canada, Finland, the US and China (trtrussian.com/novosti/kanada-vstupaet-v-borbu-za-arktiku-18183924, thebarentsobserver.com/en/2024/07/finland-canada-us-and-build-icebreakers-arctic and thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2024/07/china-commissions-new-icebreaker).

            Building such ships takes from three to eight years, although China has been on an accelerated schedule; and thus the real crisis for Russia lies ahead, although the problems in its shipyards and with its aging fleet are such that there is almost no chance that Moscow will lose its dominance in this area which is critical for control of Arctic seaways.