Kazakhstan Becomes More Kazakh and Less Russian as Ethnic Russians Continue to Leave and Kazakhs to Return Home, Statistics Show

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 23 – Despite the influx of ethnic Russians after Putin began his expanded war in Ukraine and the decision of ethnic Russians already there not to move to Russia in wartime, the departure of ethnic Russians has now resumed at roughly the same rate and the influx of Kazakhs has continued as well.

            As a result, the slight uptick in the share of ethnic Russians in Kazakhstan’s population in 2023 has been replaced by the pattern of earlier years, with the Russian share of the population continuing to decline and the Kazakh share again increasing, Aleksandr Shustov says (ritmeurasia.ru/news--2024-07-24--ottok-russkih-iz-kazahstana-rezko-sokratila-svo-74637).

            To make his case, the Russian analyst cites data from the Kazakhstan government as well as from the Russian embassy in Astana. In 2022, 16,000 ethnic Russians left Kazakhstan, while 4,400 arrived. That meant that the ethnic Russian share of that Central Asian country’s population fell by almost 11,700 even as the war began.

            In that year, he continues, Kazakhs continued to return home far more often than to leave, with 7200 registering their return and only 1400 departing, for a positive increase of 7200, further shifting the ethnic balance which has been moving against the ethnic Russians since the 1980s.

            In 2023, the situation changed, with the exodus of Russians falling “almost six times,” Shustov says. Specifically, the outflow of ethnic Russians fell sharply, with 10,100 leaving the country but 8100 entering it, meaning that the number of Russians there fell by only 2,000 (stat.gov.kz/ru/industries/social-statistics/demography/publications/157454/).

            Ethnic Kazakhs, however, continued to arrive, with some 10,000 returning in 2023; and because only 1100 left, that meant that the Kazakh share of Kazakhstan’s population increased by 8800, further increasing their majority. They form almost 75 percent of the population, while Russians who once held a majority are down to less than 14 percent.

           A large number of Russian "relocaters" did come to Kazakhstan but many of them returned or went on to other countries rather than register as permanent residents. As a result, they have not been counted by Astana in its summary data on migration in and out of the country.

            Russian flight occurred in all regions of Kazakhstan except the three Western oblasts and the capitals. In those there was an increase in the number of ethnic Russians, Shustov says, but only an “insignificant” one that likely reflects the arrival of Russians leaving Russia because of the war.

            Figures from the first quarter of 2024 suggest that Russian flight has accelerated and the return of Kazakhs has continued, he says. During those three months, 608,000 more Russians left than arrived; and 3500 more Kazakhs arrived than left (stat.gov.kz/ru/industries/social-statistics/demography/publications/158501/).