Ukraine’s Population in Best Case to Decline to Fewer than 33 Million by 2033, Kyiv Demographer Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 27 – Ella Libanova, head of the Kyiv Institute for Demography and Social Research, says that Ukraine will never again have the 52 million people it had at the end of Soviet times and that “according to the most optimistic variant,” its population will be no more than 33 million in 2033.

            As dire as her prediction is (rbc.ru/economics/13/07/2024/6692bce69a7947f58e702788), it pales in comparison with a new UN report that says the population of Ukraine in the borders of 1991 will likely decline to 15.3 million by the end of the century (ritmeurasia.ru/news--2024-07-28--demograficheskaja-katastrofa-ukrainy-74715).

            Even if Kyiv succeeds in securing the return of all those who had left the country following Putin’s expanded invasion, Libanova says that “the contraction of the population all the same will decline” and Ukraine will be forced to seek to attract migrant workers to man its workforce.

            Russian outlets like Rhythm of Eurasia scoff at her comments, arguing that scholars in Kyiv know that Ukraine will never regain its 1991 borders and that it will never attract more than a small proportion of those who have left. As a result, they say, the demographic prospects of Ukraine are horrific and will leave the country incapable of maintaining itself.