‘The Non-Opponents’ -- Russians Unhappy with War in Ukraine But Not Ready to Say It’s a Mistake or Protest Against It, PS Lab Focus Groups Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 4 – With regard to Putin’s war in Ukraine, a new category of Russians has emerged, “the non-opponents,” people who aren’t happy about its consequences, don’t understand why it is being waged, but aren’t ready to declare it a mistake or protest against its continuation, according to a report by the Public Sociology Lab.

            Based on a series of focus groups carried out across the Russian Federation, the report is discussed in detail by the independent Vyorstka media group, which also spoke with one of the report’s co-authors, sociologist Oleg Zhuravlyov (verstka.media/voyna-s-ukrainoy-rossiyane-nedovolny-no-ne-nazyvayut-eyo-oshibkoy).

            “The ‘non-opponents,’” the report says, mostly consist of those who “justify the war but are not at the same time its convinced backers.” Many are apolitical and are increasingly critical of what the war has wrought, but at the same time, they feel loyalty to their country and aren’t prepared to conclude that the war is a mistake or to protest against it.

            According to the PS Lab, the conditions for a shift to political protest about the war not have not emerged. Moreover, according to political analysts with whom Vyorstka spoke, it is “improbable” that they will emerge until the war is over. Only then will the non-opponents be prepared to think about it something they should or even can oppose.

            “The main common characteristic” of the non-opponents, the report continues, is “a sense of being separated from politics and the powers that be.” Instead they feel that politics is something they aren’t really involved in and certainly can’t hope to influence. Many of these people view the powers as “alien” but at the same time they are very loyal to Russia as such.

            “The second common aspect” of such people, the PS Lab study says, “is the presence of serious and specific pretensions to the powers in connection with the war, including the failure of Moscow to support soldiers adequately and the fact that the children of the elite aren’t fighting in the war.

            And “the third thing which unites ‘the non-opponents’ is patriotism.” For them, the PS Lab study says, any criticism of the war is possible only if it is from a patriotic position. Any other kind of criticism leads to a response in which the non-opponents will defend the war in much the same way the supporters of the Kremlin’s policies in Ukraine do.

            But there is a major difference: the supporters of the war may do so because they agree with the imperial messaging of the Putin regime, while the non-opponents do so because they identify as part of a Russian nation state and do not want to put themselves beyond its boundaries by criticizing it.

            In short, according to the PS Lab study, “by justifying the war, many of its ‘non-opponents’ in fact justify not the political goals of the special operation but themselves” as members of the Russian nation.” That has the effect of making it almost impossible for them to move from specific anger to general condemnation and then protest.

            To do so, the study suggests, would force them to deny who they see themselves as being.