Both Russian Émigré Camps Engaging in Wishful Thinking about Russia’s Future, Shtepa Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 27 – Both émigré opposition figures who favor a still-unified “good” Russia without Putin and those who believe that the only way forward is the disintegration of the country are engaged in wishful thinking, Vadim Shtepa says, because they talk only about the goals they want and do not focus on creating the mechanisms that might achieve them.

            In a  new commentary for Postimees, the editor of the Tallinn-based regionalist portal Region.Expert says the former believe that the replacement of Putin will be enough to put things on the right course and the latter that Russia will fall apart in the near future much as the USSR did in 1991 (rus.postimees.ee/8085438/vadim-shtepa-pochemu-raspad-rf-poka-nevozmozhen reposted at region.expert/impossible/).

            But neither the one nor the other focuses on how their goals will be achieved, not on how Putin will be replaced by someone not like Putin nor on how the Russian Federation will disintegrate like the USSR did in 1991 when the current situation does not resemble that at the end of Soviet times.

            “Those who loudly declare that ‘the Russian Federation will fall apart just as the USSR did’ do not consider these differences,” Shtepa says, despite how critical they are. In 1990, all the union republics had “freely elected parliaments.” None of the federal subjects, not the predominantly Russian oblasts and krays nor the non-Russian republics do now.

            Gorbachev allowed that to happen as part of his effort to shift power from the CPSU to the soviets, the regionalist expert says. Putin is not inclined to do so. Instead, he wants to ensure that the federal subjects are all tightly controlled by Moscow. His opponents aren’t talking about how to challenge that. Instead, they are acting as if specifying their goals is enough.

            To that end, Putin has banned all regionalist parties and imposed control on all pseudo-elections in the regions. Moreover, he benefits from the fact that unlike in 1991 when the creators of the USSR – Russia, Ukraine and Belarus – disbanded that country, none of the current regions or republics are in a similar position to do so now.

            Some émigré opposition figures do suggest that if there are political changes in Moscow, the governors will suddenly shift to the side of the people, although this seems not so much wishful thinking as magical thinking, given that the heads of the federal subjects are all in fact chosen by the current Kremlin.

            One might expect in this situation that emigres would be calling for real elections in the regions, but they aren’t doing so, apparently afraid that “’supporters of the ancien regime’” would win. But if there aren’t such elections, how can one expect anyone different to come to power or lead the regions or republics out of Muscovy?

            According to Shtepa, the real problem is that “Russian opposition figures simply don’t think about such elections. Instead, they live in dreams, either about ‘a beautiful Russia of the future’ as a ‘good’ empire, only without Putin, or about ‘the collapse of the cursed empire,’ but without a clear idea of how and into what exactly it might call apart.”