Russians May Show Unhappiness about Kursk by Pulling Money from Banks Rather than Demonstrating in the Streets, Shelin Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 22 – Many Russians are angry about the Ukrainian advance into Kursk Oblast and Moscow’s inability to repel it, but they are unlikely to go into the streets to protest – the situation is too far removed from them and taking part in demonstrations is too dangerous – but they may show their unhappiness in another way, Sergey Shelin says.

            Writing in The Moscow Times, the independent commentator says that if Russians become really worried or upset, they are likely to do what they have done in past crises – pull money out of banks and spend on goods – to protect themselves against devaluation of the ruble (moscowtimes.ru/2024/08/23/rossiyane-i-vtorzhenie-ukraintsev-vo-chto-konvertiruyutsya-rasteryannost-i-gnev-a140114).

            That would almost certainly lead to an acceleration of inflation, something Moscow is very worried about now; but it could also lead some in the elites to decide to make common cause with this angry part of the population and conspire against Putin and his inner circle, Shelin continues.

            Because of this possibility, inflation in the wake of what is going on in Kursk Oblast may be a key early warning indicator of the future of Putin’s rule and hence of Russian policy toward Ukraine and much else. Indeed, if inflation does spike, that could land the Kremlin in the most difficult position it has been since Putin’s launch of his expanded invasion in February 2022.