Panic over Ukrainian Advance in Kursk Spreading among Russian Elite But Its Members Dismiss Possibility of Peace Talks, ‘Vyorstka’ Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 13 -- Moscow elites at first didn’t take the Ukrainian attack on Russia’s Kursk Oblast “seriously,” the independent Vyorstka news service says; but now panic is spreading among these elites to a level that compares with their initial response to Putin’s decision to expand his invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

            Now, as then, Moscow elites first thought that the problem would be solved in at most a few weeks; but now as then, it has become obvious that it is going to continue for a long time – and they are trying to figure out what they should or even can do about that to protect themselves and their future (verstka.media/iz-za-kurrskoy-oblasti-spezoperazia-snova-udlinilas).

            Now, as then, the Moscow elites have shifted from ignoring these latest developments to focusing on them almost to the exclusion of anything else, members of the elite and those close to them tell the independent news service. And now, as then, some of them are becoming increasingly critical of the Kremlin’s actions and responses.

            This shift has occurred so quickly, these sources say, because Moscow elites are very much aware that what Ukraine has done has brought the war far closer to home. After all, as one of the news agency’s sources put it, “from Kursk to Moscow is less than 300 kilometers [180 miles].”

            Vyorstka says that its sources say that the reaction of the Moscow elites to the developments in Kursk have already had two major consequences: one is to increase concerns about the capacity of governors to cope with crises, something that has led to plans to improve the training of future regional heads in that regard. (On that, see also windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2024/08/in-past-kremlins-governors-school-didnt.html.)

            And the other is the realization that there will not be any peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv anytime soon. If before Ukraine attacked Kursk, many were talking about talks; now such talk in the words of one Russian parliamentarian who spoke to Vyorstka says is absolutely “impossible.”

            With Ukrainian troops on the ground in Kursk, it would look as if the Kremlin had been forced into such negotiations; and that is a situation that Putin would never accept, however much many in the Russian elite might want to see the war end and something like the status quo ante restored.