‘Most Important Event in Contemporary Russian History was Killing of Muammar Qadaffi’ in 2011, Shelin Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 7 – Vladimir Putin rose to power not through political struggles or military victories, Sergey Shelin says, but relatively easily and without a clear program. But once in the top slot, he discovered “the secret of Russian life: the country’s so-called elite as well as the masses can be forced to do anything.

            “The liquidation of all types of political and organizational independence, the transformation of all state institutions into puppets, the transformation of courts and local governments into puppets – all this was easily achieved, although it wasn’t done all at once but step by step, the Russian analyst says (moscowtimes.ru/2024/08/08/25-putinskih-let-kak-otstavnik-kgb-prisposobil-k-sebe-rossiyu-a139001).

            That happened because “no one resisted and everyone always obeyed,” Shelin continues. “Putin became all-powerful not after great political battles, intense campaigns or conflicts with millions who were disobedient,” he says. “The people were angry from time to time, but they never united in anything against the powers that be.”

            But before that could happen, Shelin argues, “an event happened that determined Putin’s current course” in Ukraine and against the West. “And it happened not in Russia” but in Libya where on October 20, 2011, rebels captured and then lynched Muammar Qaddafi.  Putin was shocked and concluded that this murder was the work of the Americans.

            That led to his Anschluss of Crimea in 2014 and to his expanded war against Ukraine beginning in 2022, by which time he could not restrain himself from lashing out at the Americans lest they lay the groundwork for an attack on him like the one he believed and believes they did on Qaddafi, Shelin says.

            While few in Russia shared his need to attack Ukraine, no one was prepared to stand up and try to block him, the analyst argues. “Whether Putin has so successfully adapted Russia to himself or whether Russia sees Putin as the expression of its real feelings” is far from clear. “But as long as this unity lasts, no internal forces or motive for regime change in Russia will appear.”

“This easily perceived internal strength of the regime makes a stronger impression on the surrounding world than its external power, which is not so obvious. Today, there are no indications that Putin will vacate the seat. And while he occupies it, there will be no peace. What kind of peace can there be for him” given his obsession with the fate of Qaddafi?”

In the current situation, “there is no hope.” Indeed, there cannot be any until Russia decides not to be so attached to its leader. “But when and how that might happen” is anything but clear.