If Ukraine can Hold Kursk for Two to Three Months, That will Mark ‘a Strategic Turning Point’ in Relations between Ukraine and Moscow, Shulipa Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 16 – If Ukrainian forces can hold Kursk and the territories around them without suffering major losses, that by itself will represent “a strategic turning point” in relations between Ukraine and Moscow, open the way for the possible demise of the Russian state and ensure Ukraine’s security, according to Yuri Shulipa, a prominent Ukrainian political analyst.

            He makes that point and others in the course of a wide-ranging interview with Vadim Shtepa, editor of the Tallinn-based Region.Expert portal about the meaning of what is going on in Kursk now, regarding both Ukraine’s intentions and the consequences of its military advance there (region.expert/kursk/).

            From the time of Muscovy onward, Shulipa says, Russian states have sought to “destroy and wipe from the earth” Ukraine. “But Putin by his act of geopolitical revanchism which began in 2014 has opened a Pandora’s box,” one that requires Ukraine to seek to create “a broad demilitarized zone” beyond its borders so as to protect its major cities from Russian threats.

            Moscow can be expected to insert more of its own forces to try to counter the actions of the Ukrainian military, the Kyiv legal affairs analyst says; but the more troops it sends there, the more will be destroyed and the better off Ukraine will be as a result because both Russian pressure elsewhere will be reduced and Moscow’s capacity to field an army will decline.

            That is because all sources attest to the fact that Russia under Putin is “running out of manpower” that it can use to threaten others. The advance of Ukrainian forces into Kursk is accelerating this process and thus is something to be welcomed not only by Ukrainians but by all those threatened by Putin.

            As to whether Ukraine should support the establishment of an independent Kursk Republic, Shulipa says this is a political question but notes that Kursk and the adjoining oblasts now within the existing borders of the Russian Federation were one Ukrainian and that President Volodymyr Zelensky may decide to create such a structure at some point.