Russia Still Likely to Fall Apart but ‘Unfortunately’ Not Because of Parade of Sovereignty by Non-Russian Republics, Kyiv Political Scientist Says

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Nov. 1 – Despite the opposition of the West to the disintegration of the Russian Federation, it is still “very likely to happen,” Oleg Saakyan says, but not along national lines. That pattern while frequently discussed is unlikely. If it were ever going to happen after the demise of the USSR, it would have taken place in the 1990s but now its time has passed.
    Instead, the Kyiv political scientist who co-founded the National Platform for Resilience and Cohesion says, the coming disintegration of the Moscow-centric state is likely to happen because of “the economic egotism” of regional elites and the desire of force structures to have greater freedom of action (uatv.ua/raspolzanie-rossii-ochen-veroyatnyj-stsenarij-no-ne-ot-natsionalnyh-respublik-politolog/).
    Such groups will become more active as Moscow weakens, and it will be they not the non-Russians will take the lead in the dismemberment of the Russian Federation. That is “unfortunate,” he suggests, because such people will be less likely to create new countries with more positive kinds of governance than national republics might.
    In his brief comment, Saakyan does not discuss the possibility that “the egotism” of economic elites and of security forces might form alliances with non-Russian movements; but that is a possibility that his analysis suggests and that is worthy of exploring, especially as most commentaries on the looming demise of the Russian Federation ignore than as well.