For First Time Since Pandemic, Russian Deaths have Increased in 2024, in Part Because of Combat Losses in Ukraine, Official Moscow Data Show

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Dec. 10 – The Russian government’s statistical arm, Rosstat, reports that for the first time since the pandemic year of 2021, deaths in the Russian Federation have increased in 2024, mostly because of the aging of the population and the impact of high levels of alcohol consumption but in part because of combat losses in Ukraine.
    In the metropolises of Moscow and St. Petersburg, combat losses formed only a small part of the increase, but in at least 13 of the country’s 80-plus federal subjects, they made the difference between an increase and a decrease (rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-10-2024.pdf and verstka.media/v-rossii-rastet-smertnost-news).
    In short, had Russia not been engaged in a war in Ukraine, deaths would have fallen in these regions, with both their populations and the life expectancy of residents increasing. But because deaths were reported on the basis of where the men signed up rather than where they lived, often very different places given differing bonuses, more precise findings aren’t possible.
    Nonetheless, these data sets are impressive not only because they suggest that Rosstat is now releasing more reliable information than it had recently but also because they indicate that Putin’s effort to keep the war from hitting the two capitals and sparking protests in those most politically sensitive places is working.
    But the Kremlin leader’s success may be coming at a price. As residents of the regions and republics beyond the ring road learn from official government statistics as well as their own experiences that deaths are rising in their areas, such knowledge could reignite or exacerbate anti-Kremlin attitudes and actions.