Kremlin Blames Russia’s Demographic Decline on the 20th Century, Doesn’t Understand Its Real Source, and has No Policy to Counter It, Chernyshov Says

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Dec. 23 – Putin and his team have finally recognized that Russia is in increasingly serious demographic decline, but continues to blame the 20th century for that, fails to understand its real sources, and has no policies in place to counter it, according to Yevgeny Chernyshov.
    Indeed, the only positive thing one can report from the demographic front, the Nakanune news agency commentator says, is that Putin has finally recognized that there is a problem. Unfortunately, he doesn’t understand its nature and has been taking steps and making proposals which won’t help (nakanune.ru/articles/122981/).
    Putin and his team blame all the current problems on the continuing impact of events in the 20th century, pointing to wars that left a gender imbalance in the population. Those events do not have an impact in anyway comparable to developments taking place in Russia today, Chernyshov says.
    The reason that Russia is in the midst of a demographic catastrophe, he says, is that under Russians don’t want to have children. Instead of focusing on that, the Kremlin has substituted a social policy for a demographic one and provided assistance to poorer groups even though that does not address the overriding cause.
    According to Chernyshov, “the authorities should be thinking about how to help people want to have children.” But that isn’t what they are doing. Not only would that be difficult for any government but it may be beyond the capacity of one that has been promoting selfishness and consumerism.
    The Kremlin’s policies haven’t worked and in some cases make absolutely no sense. The regime wants people to have three or four children. But it gives parents far more money for the first, less for the second, and still less for the third, leading people to change when they have the first but not causing them to have a second or third.
    Chernyshov argues that it will be difficult for the Kremlin to reverse Russia’s demographic decline even if it does see the real reasons for it. But it will be impossible if Putin and his team refuse to recognize these realities and to exclude from planning those in the government who can’t or won’t recognize what is really going on.
    If that doesn’t happen and soon, then Russia will be in even more shape sooner than anyone might imagine.