Unless Ukraine Receives Serious Security Guarantees, Many Ukrainians Now Abroad May Not Return Home, Further Compromising that Country’s Demographic Future

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Dec. 25 – The Russian invasion of Ukraine has inflicted serious demographic losses on Ukraine. Not only has that country lost many men in combat and many civilians from Russian attacks, but the birthrate has plummeted to well-below replacement levels and emigration has increased.
    Ukraine’s future prospects depend now to an important degree on the nature of any agreement ending the war, Ukrainian demographers say. If such an accord does not provide genuine security guarantees, the birthrate won’t rise and most of those now abroad won’t return. But if there are real security guarantees, the situation would be very different.
    Many of the estimate 7.7 million Ukrainians now abroad would return, the Kyiv demographers says; and births would likely increase relative to deaths as well. At present, Ukrainian women are giving birth to only 100 babies for every 286 Ukrainians who are dying (ng.ru/cis/2024-12-26/5_9165_ukraine.html).
    Ukraine’s population under the control of Kyiv has fallen from 52 million in 1991 to only 29 million now and likely will fall still further unless Ukraine can win the war and/or achieve genuine security guarantees. If it can’t get them, any accord will ultimately be a Russian victory because it will put Ukraine into a steep demographic decline it may not be able to escape.