Ending War in Ukraine May Generate ‘Almost as Big a Crisis for the Kremlin as Its Beginning,’ Pertsev Says

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Dec. 27 – For three reasons, the end of the war in Ukraine could quickly become “almost as big a crisis for the Kremlin” as the beginning of that conflict, Andrey Pertsev says. Russian elites will want the Kremlin to resume its role as regulator and the Russian people will want to know what to expect next, but Vladimir Putin won’t be able to provide either.
    The past year, the Riddle Russia commentator says, major conflicts have arisen among elite groups in Moscow, with one of the most powerful, that of Sergey Shoygu being destroyed, and gunfire being heard in the streets of the Russian capital for the first time since the 1990s (ridl.io/ru/god-bolshogo-razloma/).
    This has occurred, Pertsev argues, because “Putin’s age and passion for war have effectively removed him from arbitration” of disputes among the clans,” the dwindling resources in the country mean that the struggle for control of what’s left has intensified, and Putin’s reluctance to change people around him means that those who seek change there must attack.
    The situation has deteriorated to the point, he continues, that one is forced to conclude that “Russia’s elites are entering the new year in a state of all-our war  [and] the struggle among clans and groups is becoming part of the power vertical’s pre-programmed software,” the norm rather than the exception.
    That change in the elites took place even as a more fundamental change took place in Putin himself: He has become the opposite of what he sought to present himself as being up until now. “Instead of a macho man, arbiter and guarantor, he showed himself to be a verbose, talkative pensioner” who simply could not keep a secret or avoid appointing relatives.
    According to Pertsev, “this combination of personal qualities will be Putin’s main problem in the year ahead. His age has been one of the main grievances Russians have against him to judge from the polls, and there are more and more  details about him that throw that into high ,.
    Related to both of these and making the entire situation less stable is the fact that the Kremlin “has yet to give Russians some clear and comprehensive reason for the launch of the war and the reasons for its continuation.” Putin and his team talk about these things in words without any clear meaning.
    “As a result,” Pertsev says, “society isn’t fully involved with the war; and those who volunteer to fight at the front are doing so for the hefty paychecks they have been promised” rather than out of any specific loyalty to Putin and his regime. Ending the war won’t end this problem. Indeed, the commentator suggests, it could bring everything to a head.
    That may be yet another major reason why Putin shows so little sign of really seeking an end to the conflict.