Putin Unable to Satisfy Either Pro-Peace or Pro-War Factions in Russian Elite, Eidman Says

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Jan. 6 – When it comes to the war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is unable to satisfy either the pro-peace faction within the Russian elite which wants to go back to a time when they could use the money they’ve stolen inside Russia in the West or the pro-war one that seeks a thorough-going Stalin-style purge and the militarization of the country, Igor Eidman says.
    And the tensions between these two groups have intensified as talk about possible peace negotiations has increased, a development that highlights Putin’s weakness and makes it likely he continue the war in the same manner he has up to now, the Russian sociologist now living in Berlin says (t.me/igoreidman/1925 reposted at charter97.org/ ru/news/2025/1/6/625082/).
    In the Russian establishment, Eidman says, there are two distinct parties as far as the war in concern: those who favor a rotten peace and those who favor endless war. The first “unites most of the oligarchy and the bureaucracy.” The second “includes individual security officials and Putin associates including Medvedev as well as the fascist Z-movement.”
    The first of these “would like to accept Trump’s proposals about freezing the war,” but the second very much “fears such a development of events.” As a result, the two sides are taking to telegram channels to outline their respective positions, with Vladislav Surkov speaking for the first and Aleksey Chadayev and Aleksandr Dugin for the second.
    “Both are appealing to Putin,” Eidman says; “but he isn’t capable of carrying out the program of either. “With maniacal persistence,” the Kremlin leader “seeks to destroy Ukraine and isn’t ready to accept some new Minsk accord as his victory.” But “he is also unable to carry out some kind of mass purge and become the leader of total war.”
    For that, the Russian commentator says, the Kremlin leader is “too sybaritic and a coward, old and lazy.” Consequently, he is most likely to do “nothing new.” He will continue the war even as Russia “slowly decays from within,” something both groups who have taken a position fear.
    “When the parties of rotten peace and endless war finally understand that Putin will not meet them,” Eidman concludes, “then they can try to eliminate him. The party that manages to do this first will win. I'm betting on the party of the rotten peace.”