Russia’s Northern Sea Route Carried Less than Half the Cargo in 2024 Putin Order and Less than 10 Percent of That Involved Passage over the Entire Route

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Jan. 9 – For years, Vladimir Putin has said that the Northern Sea Route would carry 80 million tons of cargo between Europe and Asia by 2024. But in fact, it carried only 37.0 million tons – and only three million tons of that was cargo carried over the entire route, with more than 90 percent involving cargo carried between intermediate ports in northern Russia.
    That means that the NSR has not yet become the link between China and the European Union that many have expected it to, and a proposed sleight of hand for future statistics means that Moscow will likely declare more success in the out years without achieving anything like the trade Moscow has promised and many in the West fear.
    What Rosatom, the Russian government agency that manages the route plans to do, is to extend the NSR to include Kamchatka in the east and Kaliningrad in the west. That would allow Moscow to claim that the NSR was carrying far more cargo but it would only be between the current western end and eastern end and these two regions.
    This statistical tactic suggests Moscow is not going to have the real successes many are predicting because of its construction of additional icebreakers and that the Kremlin is looking for a quick fix statistically so it can declare victory even if there is no real victory available to declare,
    On these numbers and the likelihood Moscow will use them to play games about the NSR in the future, see rosatomflot.ru/press-centr/novosti-predpriyatiya/2025/01/09/11644-obem-gruzoperevozok-po-severnomu-morskomu-puti-ustanovil-rekord/ and thebarentsobserver.com/news/shipping-on-northern-sea-route-lags-far-behind-plans/422886.