Only Moscow and St. Petersburg have Suffered Fewer Combat Losses than the North Caucasus Republics, Vyushkova Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Jan. 5 – It is well-documented that Putin has sought to recruit most heavily in poorer predominantly ethnic Russian oblasts and krays and in non-Russian republics so that he can keep combat losses of those from Moscow and St. Petersburg low and thus avoid the rise of protests there.

             But it is less often noted that the Russian president divides the non-Russian regions into two groups: those in Siberia and the Russian Far East like the Buryats, Tuvans and Altai who have been heavily recruited and have suffered losses accordingly and those in the North Caucasus who have not been and thus not suffered as much, Maria Vyushkova says (themoscowtimes.com/2026/01/05/russia-needs-men-to-fight-in-ukraine-in-2026-where-will-they-come-from-a91588).

            A Buryat scholar and activist who has focused on Putin’s efforts to use non-Russians as cannon fodder says she can “only speculate on the reasons” this is the case, adding that “perhaps the Kremlin fears an explosion of instability in the Caucasus if many people with weapons and combat experience appear there?”

            But as the war grinds on and Russian losses mount, Putin have to change his approach in this regard, Vyushkova says, despite the obvious problems that would occur because many of the steps he has taken aren’t now generating a sufficient number of men for the Russian military machine in Ukraine. 

            Many regions don’t have the money to sustain the bonuses they have been paying for those who sign military contracts, she continues; and that means recruitment tactics based on coercion and deception will be used more frequently.” It is also possible that the authorities will demand corporations force some of their employees to sign up or will use more prisoners.

            Governors will go along with this because the Kremlin has now made statistics on military recruitment a key part of its evaluation of their performance – and once again the poorest regions will have to send the most because they cannot make up for not doing so by offering up natural resources.  

            If Putin is forced to draft more men from the North Caucasus, he may very well face a new round of revolt there, yet another problem that the return of veterans from his war in Ukraine will represent.