Declines in Number of Repressive Cases in Belarus Should Not Fool Anyone, Sociologist Says; They Reflect that Lukashenka has Already Repressed Most Possible Targets

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Jan. 29 – Some observers and foreign governments have been encouraged by the fact that the number of political cases the Lukashenka regime brought against its opponents this year is smaller than the number brought a year ago. But they shouldn’t be, Genadz Korshunau says.

            The head of the Belarusian Sociological Group and former director of the Minsk Institute of Sociology says that this trend does not represent anything positive but rather shows that the Belarusian dictator has been so effective at repression that there simply aren’t that many structures left the country to oppress (ng.ru/cis/2026-01-29/1_9426_belorussia.html).

            The supposedly “positive” figures from Belarus include the fact that the number of political prisoners fell from 593 in 2024 to 448 in 2025 and that the number of NGOs newly banned from 385 in 2024 to 107 in 2025 and that most of the NGOs banned in the more recent year were branches of NGOs earlier.

            By his repressive moves over many years, Genadz Korshunau says, Lukashenka has “exhausted the possibilities” for growth in repression because those opposed to his rule have either fled abroad, are already behind bars, or are too cowed by his repressive machine to take action. Thus, these supposedly encouraging figures in fact are very discouraging indeed.