Paul Goble
Staunton, Mar. 10 – Alarmist language about the likelihood of a serious rise in crime rates in the Russian Federation as veterans of Putin’s war in Ukraine return home is exaggerated for at least two reasons, according to Kirill Titayev, a professor for Liberal Arts and Sciences in Montenegro.
On the one hand, he says, the departure of many for service in Ukraine had the effect of removing the most crimogenic element of the population and actually pushing down many kinds of crime in the last several years. A return to previous levels is to be expected but it won’t be significantly higher (i-f.media/materials/2026/03/10/pochemu-vozvrashchenie-s-voini-uchastnikov-svo-poka-ne-privelo-k-vsplesku-nasiliya-i-politseiskogo-proizvola/).
And on the other, given how Moscow complected its military, “the overwhelming majority of veterans is from marginalized strata of the population: young men from the villages, convicts, poor urban residents, or addicts. In all these categories, the rate of crime in general and of violence in particular is already higher than the national average.”
Consequently, “within these portions of society,” Titayev continues, “the aggressiveness of returning veterans will not significantly exceed the existing baseline levels.” That doesn’t mean there won’t be outrages, but it is critical to keep in mind what crime was like before 2022 and not think that everything was OK then.
The Montenegrin researcher says there is one possible exception to his projection: crime could jump to unprecedented levels if a large share of veterans were to return to their homes or move to urban areas on their return all at once rather than coming back in smaller groups. But even then, the crime wave people will talk about will be a return to the past than something new.
No comments:
Post a Comment